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Reddit Personals - r4r - 300,000+ - Activity Partners, Groups, Dating, Hanging Out, Soulmates, FWBs

2010.04.02 06:49 cinsere Reddit Personals - r4r - 300,000+ - Activity Partners, Groups, Dating, Hanging Out, Soulmates, FWBs

[link]


2020.09.17 21:00 portlane William Gates (Nov. 30, 1925 - Sept. 14, 2020)

William Henry Gates II
Nov. 30, 1925 - Sept. 14, 2020
The Gates family mourns the passing of William H. Gates II, known to many as Bill Sr., who died peacefully at his beach home on Hood Canal Sept. 14, 2020 of Alzheimer's disease. In his 94 years, Bill created a towering legacy as a lawyer, philanthropist, and activist. To his family, he was a beloved husband, father, and grandfather who was an example of what it means to be a model citizen and a profoundly decent man. To many in the community, he was an inspiring role model, trusted advisor, and loyal friend. His sincerity, humor, approachability, and thoughtfulness won him legions of admirers and made him highly effective in his work and his civic and philanthropic endeavors.
Bill was born Nov. 30, 1925 and grew up in the Navy town of Bremerton. His father owned a furniture store and neither of his parents went to high school. Bill went to Bremerton High School and was active in Boy Scouts, where his troop spent three summers building a log cabin from the ground up, and he learned his first lesson about the power of people working toward a common goal.
He completed one year at the University of Washington before reporting for duty in the U.S. Army. He completed officer candidate school and was en route to Japan when it surrendered. He spent a year in war-torn Tokyo, which provided him with one of his first opportunities to consider our shared humanity and its ability to unite people regardless of their backgrounds.
Gates returned to the U.S. to earn an undergraduate degree in 1949 and a law degree the next year. During that time, he gained a lifelong passion for the Husky Nation and met his first wife, Mary Maxwell. Bill and Mary raised two daughters and a son and developed a shared sense of civic duty. Volunteering and philanthropy were nightly topics of conversation around the Gates family dinner table.
Bill and Mary found great joy in nurturing friendships. They were prolific entertainers, and guests could count on meaningful conversation and friendly competition. They and eight other families spent more than 10 summers on Hood Canal at Cheerio resort, where Bill was fondly known as "the mayor." For several years, they held a holiday skating party where Bill, at 6'7", could be found wearing a Santa suit on roller skates. Their bridge club met for nearly 60 years.
Bill began his legal career working in private practice and serving part-time as City Attorney for Bremerton. He joined a Seattle law firm, and after 12 years, formed a new firm with two partners. As managing partner, Gates helped grow the firm and today it is known as K&L Gates, one of the world's largest law firms. His firm was involved early in the region's tech industry, and that involvement expanded over time. Gates retired from the firm, then known as Preston Gates & Ellis, in 1998 after 48 years in practice.
Bill believed in the power of the law to help people and make change for the better. His colleagues admired his integrity, trusted his intelligence, and sought his advice. He engaged in the law's professional associations, including serving as president of the local and state bar associations, holding leadership positions with the American Bar Association, participating in several court commissions, and other posts. Through these associations, he helped create law school scholarships for people of color and an approach to delivering legal services to the poor.
In addition to being one of Seattle's most respected lawyers, Bill became one of the city's most revered civic leaders. He served as an engaged trustee of numerous organizations, including the Greater Seattle Chamber of Commerce, the King County Chamber of Commerce, Planned Parenthood, and United Way of King County. He founded the Technology Alliance and helped boost technology employment in Washington. He chaired the Seattle Public Schools Levy and was a visible advocate for progressive taxation, including initiating a state income tax on the very wealthy, and maintaining an estate tax—reflections of his deep commitment to social and economic equity.
In Showing Up for Life, Bill wrote that "one way to sum up a lifetime quickly is to think of the right words to put on your tombstone." He thought his should read: "He Married Well." Despite the intense sorrow of losing Mary to cancer in 1994, he never took for granted how lucky he was to have nearly five decades with her. And then, after Mary passed, he was astonished to find that he could love fully again, when he met and married Mimi Gardner in 1996. Bill and Mimi spent more than 24 years traveling the world, learning, laughing, enjoying life, and simply being together. Mimi and Bill spent his final months at Hood Canal where they could enjoy beautiful views and time outside.
Bill also had a profound impact on the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the people the foundation serves. He, more than anyone else, shaped the values of the foundation. He started the foundation's work in global health, created the Gates Cambridge Scholars Trust (2000), and guided the foundation's major investments in human services, education, and culture in the Pacific Northwest. He was quick to tear up when he saw suffering in the world and never let anyone forget the human beings behind the foundation's strategies. He saw the best in everyone, made everyone feel special, and upheld the foundation motto "All Lives Have Equal Value" in every way possible.
During his lifetime, Bill received innumerable awards including YMCA's A.K. Guy Award, the Seattle King County REALTORS First Citizen Award, the Distinguished Eagle Scout Award, and the American Bar Association Medal. The University of Washington selected him UW's Alumnus Summa Laude Dignatus in recognition of his service to and insatiable love for the University. He served as UW Regent for 15 years and directed Campaign UW, which raised $2.7 billion through 293,000 donors. A UW Regent resolution saluted Bill as "patriarch of the first family of the University." Even in the later stages of Alzheimer's, Bill could sing the lyrics to "Bow Down to Washington."
In his characteristically humble way, Bill never saw his actions as anything special—simply the right thing to do—though the community is filled with people and organizations who were changed for the better because of his involvement.
The family would like to thank the tremendously loving and caring people, affectionately named "Team Bill," who cared for him in the last years of his life. The quality of his life was greatly enhanced by their presence and consistent provision of hot (very hot) coffee, chocolate brownies, and bowl after bowl of chocolate ice cream.
In addition to Mimi, Bill is survived by his children, Kristianne "Kristi" Blake, William "Bill" H. Gates III and Elizabeth "Libby" MacPhee; their spouses, John Blake, Melinda French Gates, and Nicholas MacPhee; and his grandchildren, Kerry and Sully Blake, Jennifer, Rory and Phoebe Gates, and Emmy, Steve and Mary Armintrout. The family will carry on the traditions that have left a lasting imprint, including matching pajamas at Christmas, time on Hood Canal, and competition and games. His grandchildren will cherish memories of their individual "10-year-old trips" with Poppy and Mimi.
His son, Bill Gates III, once wrote: "The next time someone asks you if you're the real Bill Gates, tell them you're all the things the other one strives to be."
Because of COVID-19 restrictions, the Gates family will hold a memorial service at a later date. To honor Bill's lifetime of service and generosity, donations may be made to Landesa Rural Development Institute, University of Washington – Achievement Scholars Endowed Fund, the YWCA Seattle-King-Snohomish, or to a charity of your choice.
Please sign the online guest book at www.oregonlive.com/obits
source: http://obits.oregonlive.com/obituaries/oregon/obituary.aspx?n=william-henry-gates-ii&pid=196813074
submitted by portlane to deadpeoplepdx [link] [comments]


2020.09.13 14:42 Alive_Mongoose1 [Official//LIVESTREAM] 2020 "Seahawks vs Falcons" LiVe StreaMs-rEddIT

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submitted by Alive_Mongoose1 to NFLLIVESTREAMsT [link] [comments]


2020.09.12 00:02 ffbe4evaaaa Experienced GM moving back home

I made a post about this awhile ago but a date is set in motion and I'd like to see if I can solidify something before the move.
Also exploring other options, but with modern technology there are so many places to put yourself out there.
I am a GM with 7 years+ operating small to large businesses, the largest being annual sales of million+ and crew of 20+. I have been in the food/retail/customer service for 22 years, and take exceptional pride in my customer service experience and store cleanliness. I've been living and Seattle for the past 10 years but due to family health I will be moving back home.
Also a bit of whiz with computers and technology, I want to go back to college with the move (online classes).
Move date is dec 15th, arriving dec 20th. Prefer to start 1/1/21.
Would love to talk more about myself and my experience I can procure a resume upon request.
Stay safe all.
submitted by ffbe4evaaaa to austinjobs [link] [comments]


2020.09.10 20:23 PutridMarionberry The Cost of Having a Baby

During my pregnancy I kept a log of all of everything I spent related to my pregnancy and preparation for the baby. I've included a brief explanation of each expense. If I got a used item or was gifted something, I tried to give a rough estimate of the retail cost of the item new for context. I added some notes about why I bought a specific item. Feel free to ask any questions!
For some added context: I live in a HCOL area, with a high sales tax (Seattle), which drives up the cost of items purchased new. This is my first child, so we didn't have any baby stuff before I got pregnant. Our combined annual household income is roughly $350k. We definitely did not go into this with the intention of trying to prepare for baby as cheaply as ptossible, but we did try to save money/avoid buying new where we could. There is a very active Facebook parenting group near me and I was able to acquire lots of used items for free or at a reduced price through that group. I also have very good health insurance and my job has very generous (paid) maternity leave so saving for leave was not a factor.
All medical bills were paid out of an HSA. We also converted our large walk in closet to a nursery (which involved installing a window, ripping out the shelving, and repainting the room). The project was stopped and restarted several times due to COVID-19 and ended up being finished about 3 weeks before I went into labor. I did not include these expenses as part of the baby expenses. Because our nursery is very small, we were pretty constrained in what kind of furniture would fit which made it generally harder to find used furniture.
(Note: to make the chart easier to read, I deleted my date and category columns. I've included summary totals at the bottom).
EDIT: I realized I missed two medical bills (one for my follow-up blood work, TDAP vaccine--which is given late in pregnancy to provide some protection for the baby--and second Rhogam shot), and the baby's bill for the (routine) medical care she received at the hospital. I have added those in and updated the totals.
Purchase Purchase Price Estimated Cost to Buy New Notes
Expecting Better and Crib Sheet by Emily Oster $29
Prenatals $30 You're supposed to start taking them before you're even pregnant. I started about 2 months before we started trying.
Prenatals $10
Ginger supplements $9 For morning sickness
Prenatals $54 My brand of prenatals were on sale, so I bought a whole bunch.
Ashkenazi Jew Genetic panel - partially covered by insurance $610 Partially covered by insurance--this is my portion. I am of Ashkenazi Jewish descent. Thanks to inbreeding back in Europe, we have a really high incidence of a lot of nasty genetic diseases (like Tay-Sachs). I opted for the genetic screening panel to see if I was a carrier for anything for my own sanity.
Belly oil $22 Supposed to help with stretch marks
Pregnancy body pillow $45
Skin care items $47 I normally use a tazarotene gel as my only skincare product but stopped because it is not recommended during pregnancy. I began breaking out like CRAZY during the first trimester (seriously, I felt like I was 15 again) so I invested in a bunch of pregnancy-safe skincare products.
Baby class $300 8 week labor and newborn care class. Ended up being virtual due to COVID and not worth it.
ErgoBaby carrier and newborn insert $0 $170 Gifted by my parents for the holidays (~$170 new)
Rhogam Injection - partially covered by insurance $27 You can have a different blood type than your baby (depending on the father's blood type) which is no big deal for Rh positive people. For Rh negative people, if the baby is Rh positive, you can create antibodies that could hurt the baby/future babies. The Rhogam shot addresses this. I am O- and had some light bleeding late in my first trimester, so I got the Rhogam shot earlier than usual in my pregnancy since you need to get it as soon as there is any chance of intermingling blood. I'll need to get a second one later in my pregnancy
Maternity Clothes $0 $150 I got a bag of maternity clothes for free from my local FB parenting group--a bunch of tops, a few pairs of maternity sweatpants, one pair of shorts, and a pair of pants. It's mostly casual so I can't wear it to work, but I'll need casual clothes for the weekends!
Maternity Clothes $330 Motherhood Maternity near me was going out of business, so I bought my entire work maternity wardrobe, a pair of jeans, and some extra nursing clothes (everything was 40-80% off). I am an attorney so I need well-fitting professional clothes, especially since I have an arbitration scheduled for May (when I will be 7 months pregnant). Of course, due to COVID, I ended up working from home and mostly wearing my usband's sweatshirts so some of this barely got worn. But I did end doing my arbitration (via Zoom) so at least my maternity suit got some wear.
Used snoo + extra sleep sacks and extra sheets $750 $1,400 We got a used Snoo and lots of accessories from someone in my local FB group. Plan is to resell it when we're done having kids.
Maternity bras $48 My boobs have grown (and my band size is increasing, as my rib cage expands) so maternity/nursing bras were a must.
Diaper Bag $69 We got a Patagoina ultralight tote bag to use as a diaper bag on the recommendation of people in my local FB parenting group. Definitely unnecessary, but the bag was on sale at REI and I couldn't resist.
BOB jogging stroller $0 $500 Hand me down from SIL
BOB stroller chicco carseat adapter $0 $65 Hand me down from SIL. Only downside is that we're locked into getting a Chicco infant carseat (which is not a huge deal)
Glider $0 $600 Hand me down from SIL. Literally the most comfortable chair I've ever sat in
Baby Bjorn travel crib $0 $250 Hand me down from SIL
Baby bjorn bouncer $110 $200 Purchased used from my local parent group ($200 retail). We live in a small house and the bouncer folds up, so this seemed like a good fit. The used ones on Craigslist and FB market are all in the $120-$150 range, so the price seems in line with what we'd want to pay.
The First Years Newborn to Toddler Tub $22
Dog Trainer $135 We decided to hire a dog trainer to work with us in preparing our dogs for the baby. I don't know if we would have bothered, except that one of our pups tends to be very anxious and has been skittish around children in the past. He's overall the sweetest dog and calms down once he gets used to a new stimulus, so we're not overly concerned, but we do want to make sure we're properly introducing a baby and desensitizing him to children. This cost covered a 2+ hour initial session, plus a bunch of training resources.
Maternity underwear 5 pack $22 It's turns out all of my underwear have seams that are cutting painfully into my hips as I expand.
Maternity underwear 5 pack $22 More maternity underwear since it turns out I need more than 5 pairs of underwear that fit
Blood draw $12 Bill for my alpha fetoprotein blood draw and test
Skip Hop Pronto Changing Station $21 Recommended by a friend--basically a travel-size changing mat with some pockets that we can toss in to the diaper bag.
Genetic testing (Cell-Free Fetal DNA) (not covered by insutance) $33 My insurance didn't cover it, but we decided to do the Cell-Free Fetal DNA Test (screens for Down's Syndrome and other chromosomal abnormalities, with a high degree of confidence). We called around to try and get the best out-of-pocket price since our insurer would have charged us $2k. Our quoted price was $500, but for some reason the bill came in at $836. Sigh. I have zero desire to deal with the provider, but my spouse spent a few hours arguing about the bill and it got flagged for review. We eventually got a new bill for $33. Unclear if/when we will be getting another bill.*
Running belt $33 With the COVID-19 outbreak, running outside has become a real necessity for my mental health since I am no longer leaving the house (husband is doing all the shopping) except that running also feels like death. I ordered a maternity running belt to see if that helping with the pelvic pain I've been having while running
Swaddles, sleeping gowns, onesies, burpclothes $103 A local store is running a $5 and under sale as they're being crushed during the COVID-19 outbreak. I'm generally avoiding buying baby clothes since I know those are easy to acquire used, but I want to support a local business. This cost is for 20 separate items + tax -- swaddles, burp clothes, a few onesies, and a bunch of sleep gowns.
Anatomy ultrasound (my portion) $360 This is my cost for my 20-week "anatomy ultrasound" where they look in detail at the baby and baby's development. Good news is that everything looks normal so far.
Maternity leggings $61 I already bought two pairs of maternity leggings to wear under dresses but neither is great for athletics. My pre-maternity leggings don't fit anymore (RIP), so I buy two pairs of athletic maternity leggings (1 long pair, 1 capris) to work out in.
Chicco Fit2 Car Seat + extra base $218 $429 The BOB stroller adapter we have is compatible with two basic Chicco car seats--the KeyFit and Fit2. The Fit2 is supposed to last longer, through age 2, so it costs more. Since we have two cars the kid will be in regularly, we'll need two bases plus the car seat. I got a free car seat base for the Chicco Fit2 from someone in the local parents group I joined, which doesn't expire until 2023 (retail cost of an extra base is $129). Getting the free extra base makes us decide to get the Fit2 model instead of the KeyFit. There's a sale online for the Fit2 car seat--it's normally $299 retail, but is only $197 after discounts ($217.99 with tax). I was nervous anyway about buying a used carseat.
My brest friend nursing pillow & car seat cover $0 $40 Gifted by someone in local FB group.
Cloth diaper covers (5x), socks, baby anti-scratch mittens, white noise machine, car seat mirrors (2x), pacifiers, snappi cloth diaper fasteners, noise frida, booties $234 I have a running list of baby "essentials" that we'll need early on and are less likely to find used. I am getting a little antsy (very antsy) with just feeling generally unprepared, since our nursery is still a closet and the world is falling apart. I decide to go ahead and buy the things that I think we'll need that we won't be able to get used, especially with delays in shipping times due to COVID-19. Note on diapering: we decided to use a cloth diaper service for our baby until the kiddo goes to daycare, but we still need to purchase waterproof diaper covers and snappis (modern cloth diapering involves an inner absorbent layer and an outer waterproof cover; the service we're using provides and lauders the inner layer).
Nursing covers, bottles, bottle brush & drying rack, nursing pads, nipple cream $79 Feeding and breastfeeding supplies. (In hindsight, I should have waited on this stuff. Right after I bought it, there were lots of posts of people in my FB group giving away bottles, drying racks, etc.)
Nail clipper, diaper rash cream, baby soap, travel wet bag for cloth diapers, drool bibs, and baby on board car decals $57 A few of the straggler miscellaneous items on my list that I didn't expect to be able to get used (turns out I didn't need to buy the drool bibs, we ended up getting lots of bibs in the baby clothes we were later gifted).
Sun hat $14
K'tan wrap $10 $50 Got a used K'tan wrap from the FB group (normally $50). I've been told we may want a softer wrap than the Ergo for baby-carrying at home.
Breast pump $50 $200 Someone in my local FB group is selling a minimally used cordless Spectra S1 breast pump, which is the model I want and isn't covered by my insurance (insurance will cover 1 pump, but I don't get to pick it and I know I'll need a second pump anyway for work....if I ever get to go back to working in an office). The pump retails for $200.
Changing pad for dresser $30 $65 We decided to go with a changing pad/dresser combo rather than a changing table for space saving reasons. Someone in my local FB group is selling her changing pad topper (with extra waterproof covers and holder to screw into the dresser) for $30.
Activity mat, baby swing, large bag of 3-9 month clothes, bumbo seat, Fisher Price Sit-me-up chair $0 $250 Haul from my local parenting FB group--all stuff that people were giving away free. Everything is in pretty good condition. The clothes are super gendered, which probably is not what I'd chose to buy, but as far as I'm concerned, anything goes for free stuff. I've been trying not to buy clothes generally, since I know my mother won't be able to resist getting lots of cute little baby outfits and you can usually get used baby clothes for free/cheap.
Baby clothes $0 $100 Another bag of baby clothes from the FB group. Mostly in the 3-6 month range.
Cloth diaper cover $15 Sigh. My mom complained that none of the diaper covers I bought (all of which have super cute patterns) would "go" with the outfits she was getting the baby. I think she is mostly joking, but I give in and buy an extra white diaper cover as well. For the days when we're being fancy, naturally.
Prenatals $14
Liquid Iron $54 Apparently I'm severely anemic! This is not super uncommon for pregnancy, but my numbers are BAD which can lead to some pregnancy complications. My doctor recommends that I either do IV iron infusions (ugh) or immediately start to massively increase my iron intake with diet changes and supplements. She recommends a liquid iron supplement because apparently it's easier to absorb and thus more likely to actually help. The supplement is EXPENSIVE though and also totally disgusting.
Baby clothes $0 $200 I pick up a HUGE box of 3-12 month clothes from someone in my local FB parenting group to round out baby's wardrobe for year 1 of life. (We'll probably still need some outwear, but for regular clothes we're pretty set now!).
Baby clothes $0 $150 An (unexpected) haul of baby clothes. My husband's coworker gave him two large bags of newborn baby clothes. At this point, I am pretty sure we have more clothes than we possibly need, though at least it's not all newborn stuff. Once we have a dresser in the nursery, I am going to wash everything, inventory what we have, and pass on what we don't need to a friend who is having twin girls.
Audio-only baby monitor $34 We have a Nest cam to repurpose as a baby monitor, but want an audio-only one for traveling and internet outages.
Dresser $50 $300 A friend is selling some old furniture, including her childhood dresser. It's smaller than what I had initially wanted for the nursery and needs to be repainted, but definitely a lot cheaper than buying new (the dressers I've been looking at online given our space constraints are $300 at the CHEAPEST and that's for something that's isn't solid wood that we'd have to assemble). We're going to use this as a changing table and will get some some storage shelves or something to make up for the smaller dresser. I end up painting the dresser in mid-June, while 35 weeks pregnant (after we finished converting our closet to the nursery) which was a challenge since it involved a lot of bending down and crouching. But I was able to repurpose some extra paint we have from painting the trim in nursery so we don't end up spending any extra money on paint.
Waterproof mattress cover for the snoo mattress, extra sleep sack (small), extra mattress, four extra sheets $10 $80 Someone in my local FB group is getting rid of a bunch of Snoo accessories--sleep sack, sheets, extra mattress, waterproof mattress cover. I'm mostly interested in the sleep sack ($30 retail) and mattress cover ($20), but she wants to clear out everything and offers me the whole bundle for $10. We now have like 7 sheets for the snoo which seems excessive, but then again I do hear that babies are great at getting things dirty.
Bottles & Fisher Price on the go baby dome $0 $80 More stuff from the FB group--this is a small portable bassinet/play space (folds up flat) with a canopy to protect baby from sun/bugs/curious doggos. It seems like it will be helpful for traveling (can be used as a sleep space), hanging out outside, and keeping baby separated from the dogs in our house. The same person also gave me some extra bottles.
Sign up fee + 4 weeks diaper service $155 I sign up for the baby diaper service we will be using (the service picks up, washes, and drops off cloth diapers). There's a one time start up fee ($30) and a 4 week minimum. After that, we'll be billed in 4 week increments. We can cancel at any time after the first 4 weeks. We'll get a pre-birth delivery in a few weeks, then let them know when the baby is born and they'll start weekly drop offs and pickups. They also provide a diaper pail and liner as part of the service which is great!
Hooded baby towel with bear ears $19 I am blaming hormones for this. I fully intended to avoid buying baby stuff just because it's "cute"...but someone sends me the link, we haven't bought baby towels, and it's SO CUTE. Definitely an unnecessary purchase
Postpartum supplies--witch hazel pads, peri bottle, numbing spray $21 Postpartum supplies
Diapers & wipes $46 Even though we're cloth diapering, I want to have some newborn disposable diapers on hand since I've been told that that cloth diapers often don't fit newborns particularly well. We'll need the wipes regardless.
Burp clothes $20 8-pack of burp clothes
Waterproof blanket $26 Purchased at the recommendation of my friend who has a newborn--she recommended for protecting furniture and whatnot if we're breastfeeding/hanging out on the couch.
Postpartum supplies $0 $50 I get a large bag of postpartum supplies from someone in my FB group (pretty much everything I bought, plus a lot of pads, mesh underwear, etc.) I won't use all of this (most likely) and will pass the extra on to my friends who are due later than I am.
Belly lotion $9 Ran out of belly oil so I buy some lotion this time.
Rug $0 $200 My mom (this is her first grandchild) is way more into interior decorating than I am. She gets us a washable rug for our nursery. It is super cute and goes with our nursery theme. We ended up with very aqua walls--we had to choose a paint color online w/o getting a swatch because of the pandemic. I like the color but it is definitely a little more vibrant than I thought. We're leaning into it though and going full underwater theme.
Third Trimester Rhogam shot, TDAP vaccine, bloodwork $235 Medical bill for the gestational diabetes test, TDAP vaccine (you get it late in pregnancy, and it provides some immunity to the baby), and second Rhogam shot. I failed the GD screen and had to do a second diagnostic test (which I passed).
Armoire $0 $400 Another "I'm so excited for a grandchild!" gift from my mother. She buys us a small Pottery Barn armoire for our nursery (with some extra shelves) so we'll have a place to hang some of the baby's clothes.
Newborn diaper covers and Moby wrap $25 $150 Regular diaper covers for cloth diapers don't always fit newborns well. I had been planning on waiting to see if our baby was on the bigger side (and thus could fit into the covers we already bought) instead of buying newborn diaper covers. But someone is selling 15 newborn diaper covers on my FB group for $20 and I snatch those up. I also get a Moby wrap (another kind of baby carrier) for $5--we don't really need another carrier, but the K'tan is probably too small for my husband (those wraps size to the adult human, not the baby) and he'll be able to use this one at home if we can figure out how to tie it.
Bookshelf $0 $40 Curb find on a walk around my neighborhood! A small white bookshelf that will fit our nursery perfectly!
Pail for dirty wipes and garbage bags $38 Our diaper service provides us a pail for cloth diapers, but we also need a small pail for the dirty wipes
More blood work $16
Haakaa Pump $44 A friend strongly recommended the haakaa, which is a manual breast pump. I initially didn't see the point of a manual pump, but she explained that you can use the pump on whatever boob the baby isn't nursing on and prevent spillage. Makes sense to me. The cost is technically for two pumps with covers, since they are sold individually. (ETA--I don't know why I got two, you really only need one. I end up giving one away to a friend who is also pregnant)
Baby clothes hangers $15
Teething toy $7 Teething toy. We definitely don't need this now, but it was very cute
Diaper covers $10 $75 Someone is getting rid of some Thirsties diaper covers (same brand we already bought)--6 for $10. We already have 6 (non-newborn) covers, but I feel like having extras would be a good idea. They're $12.50 each normally (pre-tax).
Costs associated with labor and delivery $2,598 This is my portion of my L&D costs. I think the total bill was something like $25k but I am incredibly fortunate to have good insurance.
Baby clothes, stepstool, baby towels, toys, bottles, bottle warmer, boppy baby lounger, high chair, crib mattress, bath supplies, books, high chair. $0 $650 At my mother's insistence, I end up doing a baby registry. I had not intended to do a registry at all (or have a baby shower) since we are financially comfortable. But because of COVID, a lot of family members that would have offered in-person help won't be able to do that and keep asking her what we need. Although I don't feel like we "need" anything, she (accurately) points out that people will start sending unsolicited gifts and we're likely to get a lot of baby clothes, which we definitely do not need. I ended up registering for a lot of smaller toys, some feeding supplies, some "would be nice but not necessary" items, and some items we were planning on buying when the baby was older. We end up getting a high chair, baby towels, assorted toys, some bath supplies, a few sleep sacks for when she outgrows the Snoo, a crib mattress (but no crib lol), a bottle warmer, bottles, and a Boppy baby lounger from our registry as gifts. We also end up getting a few more sets of baby clothes, a BEAUTIFUL handknit sweater, wooden step stool with her name, a teething necklace, and some baby books as gifts.
Baby's medical bill for care in hospital $434.18 Routine care, no complications.
Hospital parking $30 Two days parking.
Partner's hospital means $50.25 Hospital food for my spouse for the 36 hours we were in the hospital (5 meals). Due to COVID, he wasn't allowed to leave and reenter my room, so he had to stay with me the whole time in the postpartum room and couldn't get food from home or anything other than the hospital room service. My meals are part of the hospital stay coverage.
Grand Total: $8,003.15
Total Cost to Buy Everything New: $13,584.16
"Savings" (Gifts & Buying Used): $5,581.01
Totals by Category:
Education $328.73
Pregnancy $776.51
Medical $4,380.58
Baby Supplies $1,180.58
Breastfeeding $173.28
Birth $101.16
Nursery $927.31
Other $135
Totals by Time Period:
Preconception $58.73
First Trimester $1,097.31
Second Trimester $2,375.22
Third Trimester $1,1338.28
Birth $3,133.61
Reflections:
We "saved" a lot by getting some of the big ticket items (stroller, car seat base, travel crib, glider) free from family or people in our local parenting group. We were also lucky to be able to get a lot of smaller items (like a bouncer, swing, activity mat, nursing pillow) free or used. My inclination that we should not buy baby clothes was 100% correct--we got a ton of clothes for free (used from my local group and as gifts from family), with the only downside being that most of the stuff we got is very gendered and not what we'd necessarily have chosen given a choice. (Overall, I think I bought a grand total of 3 onesies and 10 sleep gowns for baby--we got everything else as gifts/for free). We decided that while we'd try and purchase gender neutral stuff, anything goes as far as free stuff because it is clearly cheaper and better for the environment to reuse something rather than buying new stuff on principle. We were also pretty lucky we are to live in a corner of Seattle with a thriving parenting group! We got a lot of stuff from total strangers free or at greatly reduced prices. We also ended up getting a lot of stuff towards the end of my pregnancy from a registry, which was not something I had initially intended, and because it was late in my pregnancy, almost everything that we got from the registry was stuff that I considered non-essential (or things I expected to acquire after the baby was born and probably would have gotten used).
We definitely splurged for some things that we probably don't really need (like the Snoo). I also ended up spending more money that I should have on work maternity clothes. I ended up wearing them very minimally due to COVID-19. I can't really blame myself for that--if I had continued to go into the office during my pregnancy, I definitely would have used them. Although having now managed 4 months or so of pregnancy in sweatpants and my husband's t-shirts, I probably could have purchased fewer outfits. I did end up doing an arbitraiton via Zoom while 7 months pregnant, so at least my maternity suit got some use! I'm planning on hanging onto everything since we are (at the moment at least) planning on having a second kid.
We are planning on reselling at least the Snoo when we're done having kids. We'll see how much of this stuff we end up using or reselling.
submitted by PutridMarionberry to MoneyDiariesACTIVE [link] [comments]


2020.09.08 04:37 JustMeInBigD Things to Do - September - Virtual and Distanced Outdoor Events

Social distancing is probably here for a very long time, but yeah,we're getting bored and also want to support our community businesses, performers, etc. Events listed here are either virtual or non-crowded and/or outdoor events where it's easy to keep a safe distance. Feel free to post similar events in the comments.
Things to Do In September
Online & Outdoor, and Limited Capacity Events

Top Events

Dallas Stars are in the Stanley Cup Playoffs!
DFW Restaurant Week, Takeout Style, through Sept. 27 at select restaurants
North Texas Giving Day is Sept 17. Early giving is open now.
Autumn at the Arboretum runs from Sept. 19 through Nov. 1.
State Fair of Texas - Big Tex Fair Food Drive-Thru - select dates Sept 25 through Oct. 18

Ongoing Events

Texas Rangers Baseball
The Fight for Civil Rights in the South Dallas Holocaust and Human Rights Museum Virtual Tour Free Online tour consists of two prestigious photography exhibitions covering the African American struggle for civil rights and social equality in the 1960s. Through Jan 21
Thrift Studio Pop Up Shop Dwell with Dignity Limited Capacity - masks and gloves required Free, goods for sale Monday through Saturday 10am-5pm through Sept 26

8 - Tuesday

Winspear Opera House Jenna Bush Hager “Everything Beautiful in Its Time” Book Tour Virtual Event 7 p.m. $42
Deep Ellum Art Co D'Angelo Tribute Live Stream featuring Sput Searight & More Virtual Event on Youtube 8 p.m. Free

9 - Wednesday

Dallas Wings vs.Seattle Storm Television Broadcast 9 p.m.

10 - Thursday

The Big Fake {Micro} Wedding Dallas Bridal Show Digital Session (Streaming) 5 p.m. $10
Looks like the in-person event is still on at Tyler Place, but there’s a separate digital version too.

→Weekend

→9/11 - 9/13 Dallas Chocolate Festival (Virtual) $5 Chocolatiers and chefs bring you →streamed guided tastings, factory tours, video chats all weekend.

11 - Friday

Texas Theatre Sunset Drive-In Chadwick Boseman in 42 Doors 7:30 p.m., Show 8:30 p.m. $19.75 per car “42 : The True Story of An American Legend” tells the story of Reggie Jackson, the first African American to play Major League Baseball. Partial Box Office proceeds for this screening will go directly to the Methodist Foundation on behalf of the Cancer Center at Methodist Dallas that specializes in colon cancer.

12 - Saturday

American Heart Association Dallas Heart Walk Virtual Events from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., “Live” event on WFAA-ABC Channel 8 at 9:30am Free Donations and fundraising encouraged.

13 - Sunday

Front Yard Concerts #22 (Facebook link) Jai’sun Williams Outdoors 7 p.m. Free, contributions requested. Use Facebook Messenger to contact the linked page for the address.
Lovers Lane United Methodist Church "LIVE Concert of Collaboration" Streamed Live Event p.m. Free Music of faith performed by Sheryl Sebo on the newly restored Aeolian-Skinner chancel pipe organ and Jimmy Emery on the Baldwin concert grand piano.

14 - Monday

Refugee Services of Texas Salaam Supper Virtual 5:30 p.m. Free
Virtual cooking demo (ingredients list available in advance) plus learn about refugees and asylees, and raise awareness for the clients we serve at Refugee Services of Texas

15 - Tuesday

SMU DCII Allman Family Lecture “Why They Marched” Author Susan Ware Free, RSVP requested

16 - Wednesday

The Ticket “Intentional Grounding” Radio Show/Live Stream 7 p.m.

17 - Thursday

Reminder: Today is North Texas Giving Day.
Interabang Books “Cassandra Speaks” Author Elizabeth Lesser in Conversation with Robyn Moreno Facebook Live 6 p.m.
Levitt Pavilion Radney Foster Facebook Live 7 p.m. Free Donations to the Levitt Pavilion for North Texas Giving Day are requested and will qualify for matching gifts. The Levitt Living Room Series also includes additional dates and performers.

18 - Friday

The Drive-in at The Central Princess Bride 8 p.m. $28 - $35 per car. Food available from Tutta’s Pizza via online ordering. More dates and movies scheduled at Rooftop Cinema Club.

19 - Saturday

Advanced Cocktails Gin Cocktails - Botanical & Savory Hands-on Virtual Mixology Class 2 p.m. $99, includes tools and ingredients (pick up at The Standard pour or order for shipment.)
DeSoto Parks and Recreation Latino Heritage Virtual Concert with Havana NRG Online Event 7 p.m. Free

20 - Sunday

Dallas by Chocolate Road Rally & Scavenger Hunt with Desserts 1 p.m. $39 per person
A clever pivot from the company that brought you fun Dallas food (and Christmas lights) bus tours. Tickets required in advance. Additional dates on weekends in September and October.

21 - Monday

Let’s Roam Scavenger Hunt Adventures Dallas Virtual Game Night: Trivia, Charades, and Drawing 7 p.m. Free. Many additional dates and events.

22 - Tuesday

Dallas Veteran Resource CenteGarland Behavioral Hospital The "S" Word Conversations Live Virtual Seminar Noon – 3:30 p.m. Free An innovative experience to raise awareness about suicide prevention through the use of clips from the documentary and open discussion.
Open to the public. 3.5 Credit Hours for Social Workers and Counselors Licensed in the State of Texas.
Dallas Institute of Humanities and Culture Toni Morrison: a Tribute and Celebration Online Event 6:30 p.m. Suggested donation $25

23 - Wednesday

Mike Willliams Magic SNEAKY - A Live Interactive Virtual Magic Experience $25

24 - Thursday

Dallas Open Mic Monthly Online Open Mic Virtual 8 p.m. Free. Sponsorships and donations accepted. RSVP Requested. A monthly virtual event series (every 4th Thursday of the month) for artists, producers, poets & comedians to showcase their talents.

25 - Friday

Arts Mission Oak Cliff Tether Live Dance Performance to Watch from Your Car 6:30 p.m. $15-30. Additional dates and times between September 24-26 & October 1-3.
Virtual Theatre Opening
→9/25 - 10/ 2 Uptown Players Pageant (Off Broadway Play) $20 - $30 Virtual Theater →Production. If you like RuPaul’s Drag Race, you just might love this farce.

26 - Saturday

Jasper's Uptown Backyard Cinema Nights: Dirty Dancing Outdoor Dinner + Movie Experience 7:45 p.m. $10 . Movie nights Thursdays and Saturdays throughout September.
:

27 - Sunday

Oak HIghlands Brewery Fair Food Sunday (Facebook Link) Outdoor Event noon to 6 p.m. Each week an official State Fair of Texas concessionaire is featured.
Granada Theater Chris Daughtry’s Live From Home Tour Virtual Event 8 p.m. $10 and up This event benefits Granada Theater.

28 - Monday

Water Tower Theatre ONE Addison Concert Video-on-demand event on Vimeo $41 Full run dates Sept 17-30. Free to season subscribers.

29 - Tuesday

Frisco Lakes Concert Broadway Musicals Day A Musical Special with World Piano Man - Martyn Lucas (Facebook Link) Live concert on Youtube Chat starts at 5:30 p.m., music starts at 6 p.m. Free, donations and tips appreciated.

30 - Wednesday

Dallas Songwriters Association Virtual Open Mic Zoom Event and/or Facebook Live Free Ongoing event every Wednesday night.
submitted by JustMeInBigD to Dallas [link] [comments]


2020.09.06 06:52 CaringSisterinCA Entitled Squatter Attempted to Steal my Brother's House

This is a long one, because I want to include many details to this entirely true and unbelievable saga. I decided to use fake names for privacy and easier reading.
People involved:
OP is me, F/age 60
Dan is my brother, M/age 58
Tuna is the entitled squatter, F/age 56
Jake is my brother's stupid friend, M/age 60
Adam is my brother's nice friend, M/age 30 something
Paul is nice friend's brother in law. M/age 30 something
Several years ago my brother, Dan, moved from California to Washington state and built a 3 bedroom house on one of two parcels of land he had bought when he was 18 years old. He lived in a nice community with a small lake and had an HOA. During the 2008 economic crash he ran into financial trouble, so we helped him. To repay us for the help, in March of 2016 he came down to California for an extended period to work on our house, which was neglected because of helping him. He was very proficient at renovating houses and did fantastic work.
In November my brother's friend, Jake, called him and asked if a friend of his, Tuna, could stay in one of the rooms for $400 per month. Dan had worked for many years with Jake doing construction for a house flipper, so he trusted Jake's judgement, needed the money, and thought it might be good to have someone trustworthy there to watch his house. Dan drove back up to Washington, cleaned out a room, put a lock on his bedroom door, locked the door, and put some of his things in a storage area up out of the way in the garage. Tuna seemed nice and gave Dan $400 for the first month. There was never a written rental agreement. It was just verbal, and meant to be temporary, because Dan was going to return in 6 months.
Tuna never sent another payment. We would call and ask her, and she always said it had been sent, but nothing ever arrived. So what was going on at his house? We pieced together that something wrong was going on there after Dan's neighbor called, and after questioning Jake. The neighbor complained that the house had turned into a drug house, full of people and cars coming and going all hours of the night!
At the beginning of June, 2017, Dan drove back to Washington and handed Tuna a 3 Day Eviction Notice. She left, stating that she had somewhere else to live, and would get her stuff later. He was allowing her to retrieve her stuff at a later date. He just wanted her out. He started working on repairs and cleaning up the house. I mailed Dan a care package with some clothes, a California themed shopping bag, and gift cards for gas and food.
5 days later Tuna showed up with 2 men, who punched Dan in the face. They wanted to take the house back by force. Dan went to the neighbor and called the police. The police came, and instead of arresting the men and Tuna, they took Dan to jail for missing a child support court date, which then put a warrant on him. Before coming to California he thought everything regarding child support back payments for his independent successful 23 year old adult child had been taken care of. He had no idea about a court date, since they notify by mail, and Tuna had never forwarded his mail, which was one of the things she promised to do. (The child support scam on Dan is another issue I will have to submit later.)
So, the police essentially handed the house over to Tuna. She and her cronies went in, changed the locks and placed a long metal bar across the inside of the garage door so it could not be opened from the outside. They stole the package I sent to Dan and spent the gift cards.
Meanwhile, my family and I were on vacation in Hawaii and I received a phone call from Dan in jail. I spent a whole day of my vacation in the hotel room trying to figure out how to get him out of jail. Bail bonds could not be used for child support cases. Finally they let him out when I paid a child support payment of $350.
He had been in jail for 3 days and the squatters had dug themselves in, so when he returned to his house he had to call the police to arrest them for trespassing. After all, Tuna had been evicted, left, and no longer had permission to be there. They were squatters by all accounts, but the state defers to people who just claim they are renting, therefore requiring a "landlord" to go through the court system to remove the so called "tenants", who are actually squatters.
The police came and screwed him over once again. Tuna claimed she was renting the (entire) house, and the police believed her instead of Dan. She told the policeman that she would leave in 10 days and the policeman told Dan that he could have his house back in 10 days because Tuna said she would leave by then. Are you kidding me? Dan was instructed to leave the premises or be arrested. It was his house! She was trespassing! He got into his minivan and drove away, with nowhere to stay but in his van.
Of course, Tuna did not leave after 10 days. Dan went back after 10 days and called the police again. Once again the police told him to leave or be arrested.
We didn't know what to do next. One of the HOA board members, who had some experience in managing real estate properties attempted to help us. She said that he needed a 20 Day Eviction Notice, then Tuna would be out, and this had always worked for her when she had to evict tenants. OK. So the 20 day notice was posted and we waited.
Tuna did not leave. Dan went over to his house, and started cleaning up trash strewn all over the yard, waiting for her to leave. Tuna called the police, stating that she was a renter and he was disturbing her. Once again Dan was asked to leave or be arrested. This time Dan put his phone on speaker, and I heard the whole interaction between him and the police. Yes, he had to leave or be arrested. Dan could not even get his construction tools out of the garage and could not work without his tools, and with being homeless, how do you even work? What was going to happen to all of his possessions, his sentimental things? His room had been broken into long before, his things removed, and people had used the room.
It was near the end of Summer. We were paying his mortgage payments and it was getting so hard on everyone. Then something nice happened. A kind friend, Adam, asked him to stay at his house, which Dan did. During this time Dan worked for Adam with loaned tools, and also went to some landlord / tenant educational meetings. The people at the meetings were helpful and instructed Dan on how to proceed by taking the matter to the court. The police would not go further without a court order to physically evict Tuna. It would be difficult to afford the cost to hire a lawyer, but eventually we did end up getting a lawyer.
Dan posted a court appearance on the door of his house, since Tuna never answered the door, and that is what you do legally in this case. Every time he posted a court appearance, he had to legally give her 1 week notice, which he did.
He showed up at court and Tuna failed to show up. So he won by default, right? Wrong. The judge said that Tuna was not given proper notice because the notice was posted by Dan instead of an anonymous person. Dan walked out of the courtroom. The lawyers from the landlord / tenant meetings were there and couldn't believe it.
Unfortunately Adam had to move out of his house he was renting, so Dan had to go back to living in his van. It was Autumn in the Pacific NW and getting cold. The police had started harassing him if he slept in his van. We rented motel rooms for Dan. Once while at a motel, Dan heard a knock on the door in the middle of the night. He thought it was the motel staff and opened the door. Two men burst into the room and proceeded to beat the crap out of him to rob him. They broke his finger and gave him a concussion. Dan ran to his van, drove it to a parking lot and slept. He refused to go back to the motel. Things were starting to go downhill in a very bad way.
I found a lawyer from a non-profit who worked for free to help. He actually used that 3 Day Eviction Notice that Dan had given Tuna back in June as a basis for the case. I had found it online, the wording was appropriate, and it had been served properly. The lawyer had to jump through endless hoops and court appearances. The same judge presided over every case that had to do with evictions, and she always favored the tenants, including entitled ones.
This took forever, like 3 more months, and Dan became haggard, homeless, sick, depressed, and at times had gone missing. Once I called every hospital, jail, homeless shelter, and even the food bank, looking for him. His van was impounded 4 times. He was hospitalized 4 times. He was endlessly hunted down and harassed by the police. Three times I found him because I was listed as his emergency contact on his state insurance when he showed up at hospitals.
While all of this was happening to Dan, my husband was in a serious motorcycle accident, and I had to take care of my husband, changing his dressings, etc. Ok I'm crying right now. This was so hard to endure, remember, and difficult to write about. I couldn't leave and fly up to Washington to help my brother, but I was doing everything down here to get his house back with the lawyer. I got him motel rooms at other motels when I could. I paid 4 times to get his van out of impound. I sent him cell phones and care packages, delivered at UPS stores.
One time Dan was lost and didn't have his van or phone. He ended up at a hospital who contacted me. He told me that he had felt really sick, and had gone to the hospital earlier, who released him after examining him, even after he pleaded with them to let him stay because he felt horribly sick. He ended up collapsed on the sidewalk by the Salvation Army shelter (who wouldn't let him in) and another homeless person called 911. So he was back at that hospital with a very serious condition affecting his heart. I told the hospital to please call me at release time, so I could arrange a motel for Dan. They didn't. He was then found in a park in frigid weather dressed in a pair of scrubs, a t-shirt, hoody, and one shoe. A city policeman called me and took him to a motel, where he stayed awhile. I sent a care package there.
Dan told me that one time when he was being harassed by the police for cooking food in a park, he mouthed off and told them they were communists and it was their fault that he was homeless because they gave his house to a squatter. A fire truck arrived so he was not arrested with the firemen there, but I don't think the police liked him much for saying that.
In October Dan was arrested for drunk driving while he was sleeping in a Walmart parking lot. ???? I had to bail him out of jail over that. Every time he didn't get to court hearings they would post warrants for his arrest. One time he was in jail and they refused to give him his medication, so I had to bail him out beacuse he felt so awful.
In mid November, the police arrested Dan again for not showing up to court for that so called "drunk driving" incident. He begged me to bail him out. Even though the bail bondsman paid the bail in the late afternoon, the jail released him in the middle of the night, again with no vehicle (impounded), a dead cell phone, no charger (in the van), no money, etc. I found out later that this jail only releases people at night, so they can get credit and are paid by the state for the whole day.
That night he was released it was our deceased mother's birthday. Dan was then found unconscious in a ditch by a seawall in a Starbucks parking lot. He had a broken femur, broken hip, cracked spine, a head contusion, and that finger was still broken (from the motel incident). The doctors evaluated that he had been hit in the back of his head with a blunt object. We do not know who did it. The last thing he remembers was a police car driving by. He was air lifted to a major hospital in Seattle, about 50 miles from where he was.
I took a flight up to Seattle as soon as I could and visited him. The doctors showed me the x-rays and he had countless rods and pins put into his body to put him back together. By this time we were getting closer to having his house back. I went by the house with Adam's brother in law, Paul, who was packing heat. We pounded on the door and I demanded that the squatters hand over "my dead mother's rocking chair". The stupid friend, Jake, was there and he handed it through the door. It is a big heirloom mission style chair and they had burned into the chair in 4" letters the word "WASTED". The court order finally became available, but then we had to schedule the eviction according to when the police had time to do it, which was another 2 weeks. It was scheduled for the beginning of December. I went back home to California briefly and returned the night of the eviction.
Dan was in the hospital for almost 2 weeks. When he was released I arranged a nice long term stay type hotel back near home for him to live at until the police evicted the squatters. Paul helped us a lot. He was with the police at the eviction, changed all the locks and secured the house. He picked up Dan at the hotel and Dan got to witness the eviction of that entitled b*tch from hell. She was the only one left in the house. A notice had been posted on the door to warn everyone to leave, but as usual, she didn't think there would be any reason she would have to leave. It took her completely by surprise. The police pounded on the door and demanded she leave immediately. She asked if she could get this and that, but no, she couldn't. She grabbed her little dog, purse, and left with nothing else. The police put a notice on the door after Paul secured everything. Dan was driven back to the hotel and then I arrived. I wish I could have seen the eviction, but couldn't get a flight early enough.
The neighbors said that a bunch of people came to the house that night pounding on the door trying to get in, but couldn't. They almost called the police, but the people left. We went over there every day for about a week to clean up. Dan was confined to a wheelchair and was on heavy meds, so it was hard. He couldn't help too much, but did his best.
The house was a disaster. There was literally 5 tons of garbage in the yards around the house. The trash disposal service was not activated during this time, so they just piled it up around the house. On one side of the house was a huge pillar of trash made out of wire fencing. It was about 8 feet by 8 feet and at least 12 feet high. The front yard was awful with several piles of trash about 4 feet high. Tuna left every single thing in the kitchen, in the cupboards, and rotting food in pans. The carpets were soaked in dog pee. There were clothes and junk everywhere. There was loads of crushed glass embedded into the gravel driveway like she wanted us to get flat tires.
Over the doorway from the house into the garage was a dangerous booby trap, which literally could have killed someone. It was made out of large heavy metal clamps with a glass jewelry case tetering on top of the clamps. It could have fallen on top of someone's head if not discovered and someone jarred it a little.
The water had been shut off for months by the HOA because they controlled the well and owned the water system. As soon as you don't pay the HOA fees, water is shut off. All the toilets were clogged up with sh*t. The sewage system was impossible to unclog and later DB discovered that they had thrown dirt and plastic containers down the pipes. He had to go under the house and disassemble the pipes to get everything out.
Hanging up on the wall in plain sight in the master bedroom was the California shopping bag I had mailed to Dan in the package that Tuna had stolen. She hung it there to taunt me.
I am not super religious, but I felt the worst kind of evil there and had to pray and debuk the evil spirits from that house.
I stayed for weeks there cleaning up and hired some people to do yard clean out to get the front yard clean. Later Dan and Adam dealt with the pillar of trash at the side of the house.
EVERY CONSTRUCTION TOOL that belonged to Dan was stolen. He couldn't work much from a wheelchair, but needed the tools to repair his own house. Dan persisted though. He finally got to the point where he could walk. Now he can't walk for long periods, gets tired easily, but can do things slowly. He has some nice roommates that drive him places and take care of him at times. Many of his tools have been replaced. He sanded off the "WASTED" message on Mom's rocking chair.
We have sunk a lot of money into helping him, but what else is one supposed to do? It was a life or death situation. That was his house he had built so many years ago. This was the most wicked thing I have ever encountered. It was coming from all directions. We heard that the creepy squatter died a year later. No one wanted to take her in and she went from person to person staying wherever. If she would have been decent and kind, she probably could have been a roommate and had a place, but she thought she could just take someone's house.
submitted by CaringSisterinCA to Markee [link] [comments]


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submitted by HaulA28Augl to u/HaulA28Augl [link] [comments]


2020.08.24 14:43 Army_Bot Summary For: Weekly Question Thread (8/17/2020 to 8/23/2020)

I've read a lot on here about COVID affecting BCT and the changes that have been made there, but does anyone know roughly what to expect at OCS because of this? I leave for BCT then OCS in less than a month
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What are the policies that govern AIT drill sergeant???
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One of the NCOs in my plt is dating a spc(p) in a different brigade. Is this okay since it’s a Promotable? The Spc(p) has a BLC hard slot next month and is getting medboarded. Just trying to help my fellow NCO out.
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Can anyone let me know if airborne school is still super locked down with no pt, no leaving, no doing anything basically? I leave next week to start my quarantine and want to know what level of dumb to expect.
Side note but fuck COVID this is my 3rd god damn school date.
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Can you drop a 4187 to voluntary reclass from a balanced MOS to an under strength MOS? Or is it only Over strength to under strength?
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Anyone know the process for going Blue (USAF) to Green to attend SFAS? Can’t find any concrete info besides you get selected to make the transfer, then attend Basic then Selection. So is the contract 11b or 18x? Since there’s minor differences in the pipeline for them.
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Looking for any updates on 17C phase 2 training at Ft Gordon.
Haven't been able to find anything reflecting the current environment with COVID but really the main thing I'm looking for is daily schedule for MOS-Ts. Read a thread dated about a year ago saying we PT 0530 - 0630 and class 0900 - 1600. Is that still the case? Seems trivial but it'll go a long way in helping determine where the family and I settle down at while we're there.
TIA!
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Short background. I wanted to join the AF as an airborne linguist, but long story short that branch FUCKED me over, so I joined the Army as a 35P instead.
Currently at DLI and I heard a careerist talking about how he's going to be doing "airborne recon" or something like that, basically the regular linguist shit, but from a plane? I didn't bug him with 1000 questions cause we were just leaving PT.
Anyone know more about this, or how I could do something like this? What qualifications I need, etc?
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my sister took a practice AFQT test online and got a 52%, do you think she would pass the asvab?
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Thinking about doing an inter-service transfer. Leaving Japan pretty soon so I'll be able to talk to a proper recruiter pretty soon once I'm back in the states. Is there a way I can find out if there are openings for aviation related MOS for an E-5 before speaking to one?
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Leaving my job as hotshot crew member and just signed a 3 year 68W contract as an E-4 yesterday through the ACASP program since I’m already an Advanced EMT, I was told that I was going to be stationed at Fort Riley which I thought was kind of odd since I was under the impression that you don’t find out where you’re going until after basic.. anyways, I was just curious if someone can let me know what to expect as far as Fort Riley goes. I enjoy running up mountains/trail running on my spare time, lifting weights, drinking at bars, eating out, and hunting. I ship out early October and may get option 40 or option 4 added before I ship since I thoroughly enjoy getting my ass kicked with pt’s and getting mentally challenged.
P.s... boy there were some creatures at MEPS with me signing contracts. I hope the military whips them into shape lol
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Does anyone know how often a 68 series (minus 68W) MOS is available for initial enlistment contracts? I'm looking to join the army in the 68 series and would like an estimate on my wait time for shipping out to basic.
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I'm having trouble with DTS. I was told that reservists get something like .51c a mile traveling to their duty station for drill. Every time i try to create the local voucher and enter "home to duty station" it errors out and doesn't accept the miles. Anyone know anything about the system? I'm going 213 miles each way and i feel like its worth giving it a shot.
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Graduated this year, ship out in September. Pretty excited & nervous! I currently work 2 jobs and rely on caffeine to get through the day and a vape/chew to keep me relaxed. I don’t necessarily over do it ( 1 coffee in the morning and an occasional energy drink, 1 bottle of vape juice last me months) not so much worried about caffeine addiction effecting me I mean it’s just a headache and lethargy for a few days. But I have been using nicotine for 3 years and can’t shake it, that’s why I’m glad I’m going to bootcamp so I can force myself off and not pick it back up. But I’ve made myself to comfortable by using both daily, anyone ship to bootcamp in the same boat as me? How bad are the withdrawals?
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Three questions I have
  1. Can I bring an eye mask and/ or earplugs to basic, for sleep?
  2. I’m gonna be in Arizona for AIT in December. Wanted to buy plane tickets early on (like this month) to save money, and was wondering if anyone had an estimate (roughly) of usually when the day or week is that we’re allowed to go home? (Or if we are at all)
  3. Once I get to basic next month, are we gonna be paid normally during quarantine, or is it going to start after the 14 or so days?
Thanks in advance, and sorry if any of the questions sound stupid.
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Can servicemembers travel to California, either to PCS or for ordinary leave? The defense.mil site isn’t giving me a clear answer.
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Desperately need help improving my 2 mile time. I need to run about a minute or so faster to hit the minimum. Any help plz
Sincerely,
A short fat body
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This week I will be drafting my personal statement for a moral waiver, which I will revise with my recruiter before submitting. My recruiter said that I should first describe the incident of my arrest and explain the charges, and second, reflect on the arrest and share what I have done to develop my moral character since then. They want to know I won't get in trouble again. The statement should be specific, clear and concise.
While these instructions are clear enough, I do have some questions for which I would like additional input, ideally from someone who is familiar with successful moral waivers:
  1. Should I state why I want to join the Army? Broadly speaking, I love America and feel that my personal statement should include some reflection on the importance of the Constitution and the necessity for people to defend it. More specifically, I want to enlist as an infantryman, attend the SF Q-course, and become part of an ODA.
  2. Should I make any argument for how I would be an asset to the Army? In theory, military decisions boil down to either improving or utilizing a nation's war-fighting capabilities. As such, it makes sense to me that I should incorporate some sort of argument or demonstration that my value-added will surpass my limiting factors, and that my efforts to enlist are made in cognizance of this.
Essentially I want to know if there have been positive consequences for including these things in statements, or if they are redundant. I don't want to put anything in the statement that does not need to be there or that will not help my case. All things considered, I am fairly confident that my waiver will be accepted but I want to make sure to write the best statement possible.
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Hey guys, Question regarding moral waivers. I have been waiting for a moral waiver. My recruiter just sent me an email saying I won’t probably have it processed during this fiscal year. How long does it normally take for these to get reviewed. He is leaving me in the dark it feels like
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Currently in AIT... it’s been about 4 months before I become semi-permanent party when I PCS to my phase II location (Fort Bliss) for 68C. If I went to sick call about a thyroid or hormonal problem (which I suspect), and I have a thyroid disease or disorder, will I be chaptered out of the army? I want to look out for my health and lately I haven’t feeling well. I might even have low testosterone levels right now.
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Got a 4-day coming up and I'm stationed at JBLM. Was wondering if anyone has any kickass ideas for the weekend? Aside from the obvious. Canada is off limits. Seattle sucks with covid around. I was thinking perhaps a run down to Oregon? My buddy and I are big into camping/hiking.
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I will be leaving to basic at the end of September and was wondering how voting will work while i am there. I am from Texas and will be going to Fort Sill, I have only ever voted in person and would like some info on if there even is a way to vote from basic training. Thanks!
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Hi, I’m considering joining as 42R. I haven’t started the process yet because I’m worried about Covid outbreak during BCT. What kind of precautions are in place and has there been many positive cases? I’m a wind player so having my lungs is kind of important. Also if anyone is 42R and can answer how long the audition/selection process takes it would be super helpful. Do i have to schedule an audition pretty soon after i get the audition packet? Thank you!
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What's it like as a reservist DS? I got out 4 years ago as an 11b and had a recruiter contact me about getting back in as a DS
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Has anyone had issues with Armed Forces Bank? My recruiter set me up with them and I opened my account over a month ago and now it doesn’t exist. I’m thinking about going to Navy Federal
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Do you need a car on Fort Jackson, SC? Staying in the hotels for BOLC for ~4months and def don’t wanna drive cross country. But also don’t wanna miss my car when I’m there.
Is it assumed that you won’t have a car as far as daily work, class, training is concerned?
And finally, hows life there without a car on weekends, etc?
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Today I went to do my medical at MEPS and now I have to get an eye exam next week due to high myopia. My right eye is -9.5 and my left eye is -8.25...and I'm really worried I might get DQ from enlisting...I got a decent ASVAB scores, passed all my other medical stuff, and the MOS I'm currently pursuing is 35F in the Army. Should I be worried and brace myself the worse case scenario of getting DQ? And if I do get DQ, should I do lasik surgery then? Thank you again for reading this post.
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I feel lost. I’m a SPC(P)/TL waiting on BLC and points. I am not sure where I want to go in terms of duty station, reclass etc.
Currently, a 31B which I don’t hate but having a family and working all these BS shifts with next to no family time because force com is first. I have ponder CID (but again probably no family time, since people can’t stop from murdering each other or touching each other; looking at you Hood)
I’m going to school for Cyber Security so I would like to ultimately like something IT related civilian side. Although my ST/GT score is about 3 pts below the requirements for 17C. Thought about 25B, since that’d be an introduction to IT. And I meet all the requirements. My contract is up in mid 2022. Also thought about being a 42A.
As for duty station. I want something with cooler weather. I have thought about Alaska, JBLM, or Hawaii. I love TX, call me a little bitch but +100 degree heat isn’t for me or the family. Did it in CA and it sucked!
Break Down:
Submit a packet and try for CID (not sure about a TS clearance, nothing crazy bad)
Reclass to 17C, 25B or 42A?
Whats a nice duty station to be at? We our outdoorsy type people but we need some grass and trees (no not like Bragg)
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Can anyone answer- since I’m going to BCT during the election and I’m a Georgia resident are there voting machines on base? Am I allowed to vote during the middle or training? Also will they allow us to watch the election results? Thanks in advance
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Trying to select best possible MEPS date that will domino into a ship date for Basic so that when I tell work (and they freak out) I can gently say don’t worry here is a long term transition plan. However, I can’t seem to find any sort of calendar that details out anything in FY2021. Am I being dumb for trying to google this and assuming drill dates/whatnot are public information? I sent an email to my recruiter which will most probably make his eyes roll asking for a relative timeline since I acknowledge we are knee deep in a pandemic casually so nothing is set in stone; however, I really am trying to mitigate my work plan.
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A friend of mine (stationed in Europe) is soon going to attend the Sniper Course at Fort Benning.
Are there any restrictions due to COVID when it comes to pt, leaving base and such?
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I am planning on enlisting, the mos I really want is 25B. There aren’t any contracts available for 25B. The recruiter said 25U is available. Do you think that 25U would translate well in the civilian world compared to 25B. I’m looking to get experience out of the job.
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Prior service E5 going to FLW for CBRN reclass. Should I leave my golf clubs at home?
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Hey fellas,I want to join the army and choose job 35m, but was told it's not open for me because i have a color vision deficiency and they said waivers are impossible. Has anyone had success or know someone with success on getting in initially or eventually? I would really like a glimmer of hope to be rekindled..
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I have a friend of mine PCSing to my post early next year. Is it possible to see if he can get pulled into my unit? I don't know where to look and I'd like to have a general idea before bringing it up to unit leadership. I understand it would take some string pulling of higher ups among other things such as manning.
I glanced at AR 600-8-8 and haven't found where to look into other than that.
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So I’ve been talking to a recruiter and I am most likely going to be joining sometime in January. Originally I was planning on getting an Option 40 contract, but my recruiter told me that it’s very unlikely I could get one and should just wait till I get to OSUT and talk to a ranger recruiter there. I am 100% sure as of now that I want to try and get into bat. Should I wait out the Option 40 or just join as an 11x and get in contact with a ranger recruiter later?
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My friend wants to join the Air Force. He is fluent in Mandarin but is not a citizen yet. Does he have a shot as a cryptolinguist? He is majoring in Finance and plans to become a commercial pilot one day.
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Going to Kuwait with NG unit. Do I get HOR BAH? I live in an apartment with a roommate with only 3 months left on the lease, there's no way we're going to be able to sublease or break it for my roommate. No dependents.
I think the answer is no, but I just want to be sure.
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24yr old college graduate (shitty gpa, like 2.9 or something in business). I scored a 95 on the ASVAB and my recruiter told me I qualified for any job. I told him I wanted 11x and he was strongly against it. My family is also not too happy about it either. Is it really that bad of a decision?
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I'm interested in joining, but hereditary chronic hep B is holding me back. This condition is incurable. It's treatable with daily pills and does not physically limit me. From what internet searches have revealed, MEPS' blood test looks for HIV, hemoglobin (HGB), hematocrit (HCT), RPR, and alcohol (https://www.thebalancecareers.com/meps-at-a-glance-3354039). My HGB & HCT are in normal ranges.
I don't have cirrhosis or liver abnormalities; my liver is functional. According to some other sites proper liver function with hep C, which is curable, meets standards for MEPS (https://www.military.com/join-armed-forces/disqualifiers-medical-conditions.html).
I asked a recruiter about having hep B and they pointed out how chronic hep B is disqualifying, but they said I would never know for sure until I go to MEPS.
Can I still join? Would it be possible to get a waiver for this?
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I have a few questions. I started off Army Guard (35F and 35M), went Navy Reserve (35S, they call it CTR) but coming back to Army Guard (35L).
1) I have to go to Airborne school. What is their current standard? Are they using the new PT test? 2) Before I got out, I did WLC, and SSD 1. As an E6, what is the current NCOES expectation for me? 3) When are they all moving to the new PT test for record?
Thanks.
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Any 19D that could give me a rundown? What to expect and be prepared for? OSUT advice? Anything about 19D I should know?
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Does anyone possibly know which battalion a private 37F in BCT at Fort Leonard Wood would be in? I want to send my husband a letter with sandboxx but I missed the part of the 30 second phone call where he said which battalion he is in. If it’s too hard to pin down I’ll just wait to hear from him again but if someone knows for fact which battalion 37F’s in Fort Leonard Wood are in I’d really appreciate that being shared.
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How did Covid 19 affect fort jackson?
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submitted by Army_Bot to army [link] [comments]


2020.08.24 14:43 Army_Bot Summary For: Weekly Question Thread (8/17/2020 to 8/23/2020)

I've read a lot on here about COVID affecting BCT and the changes that have been made there, but does anyone know roughly what to expect at OCS because of this? I leave for BCT then OCS in less than a month
Link to Comment Chain
What are the policies that govern AIT drill sergeant???
Link to Comment Chain
One of the NCOs in my plt is dating a spc(p) in a different brigade. Is this okay since it’s a Promotable? The Spc(p) has a BLC hard slot next month and is getting medboarded. Just trying to help my fellow NCO out.
Link to Comment Chain
Can anyone let me know if airborne school is still super locked down with no pt, no leaving, no doing anything basically? I leave next week to start my quarantine and want to know what level of dumb to expect.
Side note but fuck COVID this is my 3rd god damn school date.
Link to Comment Chain
Can you drop a 4187 to voluntary reclass from a balanced MOS to an under strength MOS? Or is it only Over strength to under strength?
Link to Comment Chain
Anyone know the process for going Blue (USAF) to Green to attend SFAS? Can’t find any concrete info besides you get selected to make the transfer, then attend Basic then Selection. So is the contract 11b or 18x? Since there’s minor differences in the pipeline for them.
Link to Comment Chain
Looking for any updates on 17C phase 2 training at Ft Gordon.
Haven't been able to find anything reflecting the current environment with COVID but really the main thing I'm looking for is daily schedule for MOS-Ts. Read a thread dated about a year ago saying we PT 0530 - 0630 and class 0900 - 1600. Is that still the case? Seems trivial but it'll go a long way in helping determine where the family and I settle down at while we're there.
TIA!
Link to Comment Chain
Short background. I wanted to join the AF as an airborne linguist, but long story short that branch FUCKED me over, so I joined the Army as a 35P instead.
Currently at DLI and I heard a careerist talking about how he's going to be doing "airborne recon" or something like that, basically the regular linguist shit, but from a plane? I didn't bug him with 1000 questions cause we were just leaving PT.
Anyone know more about this, or how I could do something like this? What qualifications I need, etc?
Link to Comment Chain
my sister took a practice AFQT test online and got a 52%, do you think she would pass the asvab?
Link to Comment Chain
Thinking about doing an inter-service transfer. Leaving Japan pretty soon so I'll be able to talk to a proper recruiter pretty soon once I'm back in the states. Is there a way I can find out if there are openings for aviation related MOS for an E-5 before speaking to one?
Link to Comment Chain
Leaving my job as hotshot crew member and just signed a 3 year 68W contract as an E-4 yesterday through the ACASP program since I’m already an Advanced EMT, I was told that I was going to be stationed at Fort Riley which I thought was kind of odd since I was under the impression that you don’t find out where you’re going until after basic.. anyways, I was just curious if someone can let me know what to expect as far as Fort Riley goes. I enjoy running up mountains/trail running on my spare time, lifting weights, drinking at bars, eating out, and hunting. I ship out early October and may get option 40 or option 4 added before I ship since I thoroughly enjoy getting my ass kicked with pt’s and getting mentally challenged.
P.s... boy there were some creatures at MEPS with me signing contracts. I hope the military whips them into shape lol
Link to Comment Chain
Does anyone know how often a 68 series (minus 68W) MOS is available for initial enlistment contracts? I'm looking to join the army in the 68 series and would like an estimate on my wait time for shipping out to basic.
Link to Comment Chain
I'm having trouble with DTS. I was told that reservists get something like .51c a mile traveling to their duty station for drill. Every time i try to create the local voucher and enter "home to duty station" it errors out and doesn't accept the miles. Anyone know anything about the system? I'm going 213 miles each way and i feel like its worth giving it a shot.
Link to Comment Chain
Graduated this year, ship out in September. Pretty excited & nervous! I currently work 2 jobs and rely on caffeine to get through the day and a vape/chew to keep me relaxed. I don’t necessarily over do it ( 1 coffee in the morning and an occasional energy drink, 1 bottle of vape juice last me months) not so much worried about caffeine addiction effecting me I mean it’s just a headache and lethargy for a few days. But I have been using nicotine for 3 years and can’t shake it, that’s why I’m glad I’m going to bootcamp so I can force myself off and not pick it back up. But I’ve made myself to comfortable by using both daily, anyone ship to bootcamp in the same boat as me? How bad are the withdrawals?
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Three questions I have
  1. Can I bring an eye mask and/ or earplugs to basic, for sleep?
  2. I’m gonna be in Arizona for AIT in December. Wanted to buy plane tickets early on (like this month) to save money, and was wondering if anyone had an estimate (roughly) of usually when the day or week is that we’re allowed to go home? (Or if we are at all)
  3. Once I get to basic next month, are we gonna be paid normally during quarantine, or is it going to start after the 14 or so days?
Thanks in advance, and sorry if any of the questions sound stupid.
Link to Comment Chain
Can servicemembers travel to California, either to PCS or for ordinary leave? The defense.mil site isn’t giving me a clear answer.
Link to Comment Chain
Desperately need help improving my 2 mile time. I need to run about a minute or so faster to hit the minimum. Any help plz
Sincerely,
A short fat body
Link to Comment Chain
This week I will be drafting my personal statement for a moral waiver, which I will revise with my recruiter before submitting. My recruiter said that I should first describe the incident of my arrest and explain the charges, and second, reflect on the arrest and share what I have done to develop my moral character since then. They want to know I won't get in trouble again. The statement should be specific, clear and concise.
While these instructions are clear enough, I do have some questions for which I would like additional input, ideally from someone who is familiar with successful moral waivers:
  1. Should I state why I want to join the Army? Broadly speaking, I love America and feel that my personal statement should include some reflection on the importance of the Constitution and the necessity for people to defend it. More specifically, I want to enlist as an infantryman, attend the SF Q-course, and become part of an ODA.
  2. Should I make any argument for how I would be an asset to the Army? In theory, military decisions boil down to either improving or utilizing a nation's war-fighting capabilities. As such, it makes sense to me that I should incorporate some sort of argument or demonstration that my value-added will surpass my limiting factors, and that my efforts to enlist are made in cognizance of this.
Essentially I want to know if there have been positive consequences for including these things in statements, or if they are redundant. I don't want to put anything in the statement that does not need to be there or that will not help my case. All things considered, I am fairly confident that my waiver will be accepted but I want to make sure to write the best statement possible.
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Hey guys, Question regarding moral waivers. I have been waiting for a moral waiver. My recruiter just sent me an email saying I won’t probably have it processed during this fiscal year. How long does it normally take for these to get reviewed. He is leaving me in the dark it feels like
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Currently in AIT... it’s been about 4 months before I become semi-permanent party when I PCS to my phase II location (Fort Bliss) for 68C. If I went to sick call about a thyroid or hormonal problem (which I suspect), and I have a thyroid disease or disorder, will I be chaptered out of the army? I want to look out for my health and lately I haven’t feeling well. I might even have low testosterone levels right now.
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Got a 4-day coming up and I'm stationed at JBLM. Was wondering if anyone has any kickass ideas for the weekend? Aside from the obvious. Canada is off limits. Seattle sucks with covid around. I was thinking perhaps a run down to Oregon? My buddy and I are big into camping/hiking.
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I will be leaving to basic at the end of September and was wondering how voting will work while i am there. I am from Texas and will be going to Fort Sill, I have only ever voted in person and would like some info on if there even is a way to vote from basic training. Thanks!
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Hi, I’m considering joining as 42R. I haven’t started the process yet because I’m worried about Covid outbreak during BCT. What kind of precautions are in place and has there been many positive cases? I’m a wind player so having my lungs is kind of important. Also if anyone is 42R and can answer how long the audition/selection process takes it would be super helpful. Do i have to schedule an audition pretty soon after i get the audition packet? Thank you!
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What's it like as a reservist DS? I got out 4 years ago as an 11b and had a recruiter contact me about getting back in as a DS
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Has anyone had issues with Armed Forces Bank? My recruiter set me up with them and I opened my account over a month ago and now it doesn’t exist. I’m thinking about going to Navy Federal
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Do you need a car on Fort Jackson, SC? Staying in the hotels for BOLC for ~4months and def don’t wanna drive cross country. But also don’t wanna miss my car when I’m there.
Is it assumed that you won’t have a car as far as daily work, class, training is concerned?
And finally, hows life there without a car on weekends, etc?
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Today I went to do my medical at MEPS and now I have to get an eye exam next week due to high myopia. My right eye is -9.5 and my left eye is -8.25...and I'm really worried I might get DQ from enlisting...I got a decent ASVAB scores, passed all my other medical stuff, and the MOS I'm currently pursuing is 35F in the Army. Should I be worried and brace myself the worse case scenario of getting DQ? And if I do get DQ, should I do lasik surgery then? Thank you again for reading this post.
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I feel lost. I’m a SPC(P)/TL waiting on BLC and points. I am not sure where I want to go in terms of duty station, reclass etc.
Currently, a 31B which I don’t hate but having a family and working all these BS shifts with next to no family time because force com is first. I have ponder CID (but again probably no family time, since people can’t stop from murdering each other or touching each other; looking at you Hood)
I’m going to school for Cyber Security so I would like to ultimately like something IT related civilian side. Although my ST/GT score is about 3 pts below the requirements for 17C. Thought about 25B, since that’d be an introduction to IT. And I meet all the requirements. My contract is up in mid 2022. Also thought about being a 42A.
As for duty station. I want something with cooler weather. I have thought about Alaska, JBLM, or Hawaii. I love TX, call me a little bitch but +100 degree heat isn’t for me or the family. Did it in CA and it sucked!
Break Down:
Submit a packet and try for CID (not sure about a TS clearance, nothing crazy bad)
Reclass to 17C, 25B or 42A?
Whats a nice duty station to be at? We our outdoorsy type people but we need some grass and trees (no not like Bragg)
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Can anyone answer- since I’m going to BCT during the election and I’m a Georgia resident are there voting machines on base? Am I allowed to vote during the middle or training? Also will they allow us to watch the election results? Thanks in advance
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Trying to select best possible MEPS date that will domino into a ship date for Basic so that when I tell work (and they freak out) I can gently say don’t worry here is a long term transition plan. However, I can’t seem to find any sort of calendar that details out anything in FY2021. Am I being dumb for trying to google this and assuming drill dates/whatnot are public information? I sent an email to my recruiter which will most probably make his eyes roll asking for a relative timeline since I acknowledge we are knee deep in a pandemic casually so nothing is set in stone; however, I really am trying to mitigate my work plan.
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A friend of mine (stationed in Europe) is soon going to attend the Sniper Course at Fort Benning.
Are there any restrictions due to COVID when it comes to pt, leaving base and such?
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I am planning on enlisting, the mos I really want is 25B. There aren’t any contracts available for 25B. The recruiter said 25U is available. Do you think that 25U would translate well in the civilian world compared to 25B. I’m looking to get experience out of the job.
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Prior service E5 going to FLW for CBRN reclass. Should I leave my golf clubs at home?
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Hey fellas,I want to join the army and choose job 35m, but was told it's not open for me because i have a color vision deficiency and they said waivers are impossible. Has anyone had success or know someone with success on getting in initially or eventually? I would really like a glimmer of hope to be rekindled..
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I have a friend of mine PCSing to my post early next year. Is it possible to see if he can get pulled into my unit? I don't know where to look and I'd like to have a general idea before bringing it up to unit leadership. I understand it would take some string pulling of higher ups among other things such as manning.
I glanced at AR 600-8-8 and haven't found where to look into other than that.
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So I’ve been talking to a recruiter and I am most likely going to be joining sometime in January. Originally I was planning on getting an Option 40 contract, but my recruiter told me that it’s very unlikely I could get one and should just wait till I get to OSUT and talk to a ranger recruiter there. I am 100% sure as of now that I want to try and get into bat. Should I wait out the Option 40 or just join as an 11x and get in contact with a ranger recruiter later?
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My friend wants to join the Air Force. He is fluent in Mandarin but is not a citizen yet. Does he have a shot as a cryptolinguist? He is majoring in Finance and plans to become a commercial pilot one day.
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Going to Kuwait with NG unit. Do I get HOR BAH? I live in an apartment with a roommate with only 3 months left on the lease, there's no way we're going to be able to sublease or break it for my roommate. No dependents.
I think the answer is no, but I just want to be sure.
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24yr old college graduate (shitty gpa, like 2.9 or something in business). I scored a 95 on the ASVAB and my recruiter told me I qualified for any job. I told him I wanted 11x and he was strongly against it. My family is also not too happy about it either. Is it really that bad of a decision?
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I'm interested in joining, but hereditary chronic hep B is holding me back. This condition is incurable. It's treatable with daily pills and does not physically limit me. From what internet searches have revealed, MEPS' blood test looks for HIV, hemoglobin (HGB), hematocrit (HCT), RPR, and alcohol (https://www.thebalancecareers.com/meps-at-a-glance-3354039). My HGB & HCT are in normal ranges.
I don't have cirrhosis or liver abnormalities; my liver is functional. According to some other sites proper liver function with hep C, which is curable, meets standards for MEPS (https://www.military.com/join-armed-forces/disqualifiers-medical-conditions.html).
I asked a recruiter about having hep B and they pointed out how chronic hep B is disqualifying, but they said I would never know for sure until I go to MEPS.
Can I still join? Would it be possible to get a waiver for this?
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I have a few questions. I started off Army Guard (35F and 35M), went Navy Reserve (35S, they call it CTR) but coming back to Army Guard (35L).
1) I have to go to Airborne school. What is their current standard? Are they using the new PT test? 2) Before I got out, I did WLC, and SSD 1. As an E6, what is the current NCOES expectation for me? 3) When are they all moving to the new PT test for record?
Thanks.
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Any 19D that could give me a rundown? What to expect and be prepared for? OSUT advice? Anything about 19D I should know?
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Does anyone possibly know which battalion a private 37F in BCT at Fort Leonard Wood would be in? I want to send my husband a letter with sandboxx but I missed the part of the 30 second phone call where he said which battalion he is in. If it’s too hard to pin down I’ll just wait to hear from him again but if someone knows for fact which battalion 37F’s in Fort Leonard Wood are in I’d really appreciate that being shared.
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How did Covid 19 affect fort jackson?
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submitted by Army_Bot to ArmyWQT [link] [comments]


2020.08.22 11:41 brakos My late night ramblings about Seattle: The city that built me.

Maybe it’s the "what if" thoughts going through my head right now that’s led me to write this. Maybe it’s the fact that my twenties are nearly over. Maybe it’s the quarantine. Maybe it’s just simple nostalgia. I don’t know.
But tonight, I feel I need to reflect on the city that made me who I am today. Seattle, Washington.
I was born and raised in Port Orchard and Bremerton. No matter what, that will always be my hometown, familiar territory. There will always be the bowling alley, the elementary school I went to, and Grandma’s house. But that’s not what this story is about.
This story probably begins earlier than I feel it should, but it’s my first true memory of Seattle. A journey with my grandparents to see the Mariners play at the Kingdome for my seventh birthday. There might only be three things I can remember about that day: The Mariners won and scored at least 10 runs (I think it was 11). I was very intrigued by the scoreboard, but I loved technology like that back then. The bus ride back to some park and ride south of the city was probably the most memorable. I had no idea buses could even bend in the middle, so of course I sat on that sideways-facing seat. A seven-year-old boy, probably wearing a Mariners hat and shirt, completely fascinated by the fact that two halves of a bus could twist and turn and not break. And being in a vehicle with complete strangers seemed so foreign at the time. But it was all new, so it was cool.
Fast forward to when I was ten or eleven. My mom and I took the ferry over to downtown Seattle. Definitely a summer day, it was uncomfortable in the days that air conditioning was a luxury in the northwest. We went to the aquarium, some lemonade cart that’s probably long gone, Pike Place Market (when you’re still a kid, those stairs from the waterfront feel like they go on forever by the way), the Monorail, and the Space Needle. Interestingly enough, I don’t think I’ve been up to the top since. I later learned of much better view points. The tall buildings made me completely disoriented, which is how my present-day partner feels when she’s downtown.
A year or two later, I think sixth grade, my class took a field trip to EMP. I grew up on the peninsula in the nineties, all I really was comfortable with was country music at that point, so I really didn’t get much out of it. All I could remember was loathing the pop music of the time, and not realizing there’s more than just what’s on the pop stations and country. But we’ll save that for another paragraph.
I ran off to Seattle for the first time when I was fifteen I think. Looking back, probably a stupid idea. But aren’t most ideas when you’re fifteen. It was actually just for a couple hours, I mostly wanted to go to the sporting goods store on the waterfront and find some hats. They weren’t even Seattle-based teams, which is probably why I didn’t just go to the mall in Silverdale. I still have no idea if my folks knew that I went to Seattle. I never got in trouble if they did.
Jonathon, if you’re reading this, I still remember you scaring the shit out of me coming back from a Mariners game we went to in 2008 with Mr. Phillips’s marketing class.
In high school, I longed to get out. Maybe too much. I wanted to move to Texas and go to college to learn to be computer graphics designer. I don’t think I ever managed to be more specific than that. Spoiler alert: I didn’t move to Texas. I didn’t become a graphics designer. Plus I’m colorblind so it probably would have been difficult anyways. But somehow the city that made me who I am today was only a ferry ride away.
I guess the story really starts here. And before I even visited Seattle as an adult. Throughout high school, I discovered so much interesting music thanks to some less than legal avenues with names bearing citrus fruits. Eventually I found some bands I liked, which led me to a few more similar ones, and so on. At some point I stumbled upon The Postal Service and Death Cab for Cutie. I had no idea they were from Seattle for months, maybe even a year or two. It was comforting, relaxing, and resonated with me. Honestly it still does all these years later. I swear this will tie in eventually.
Jump ahead a while, it’s the fall of 2010. I found a live performance of a radio program in Seattle I really wanted to go to. I saved up some money and made the journey out there. Hopped on the ferry, and sailed off. I was 19, the grimy city I never understood was simultaneously both more and less foreboding than it was when I was a kid. At some point, I remember helping an older woman take some stuff to her apartment. I don’t know if this has any significance, but I just remembered it.
Bus route 11, which later on I became much more familiar with, was a mystery at that point. The first one that came by, I didn’t even know where to catch it at. I knew it was a corner of 1st Avenue… somewhere. But I missed it somehow, so had to wait another 15 minutes or whatever it was. At this point I was glad buses ran more than once an hour like they do in Port Orchard.
By the time I got to the other side of the city, I was getting pretty hungry. I found The Independent Pizzeria. I have no idea if it still exists or not, the few times I thought to look it up again, they were either closed for the season or our schedules didn’t align. I should go back if it's still around. The hole-in-the-wall atmosphere was charming and cozy. The smell of pizza definitely helped matters.
A few minutes in there, I heard a familiar tune: Such Great Heights. I was home at that moment. To this day it’s still my favorite Postal Service song, probably because of that memory. I don’t even remember the show anymore, or the journey back onto the ferry. I felt comfortable. I had a place I belonged.
My first year I lived in Bellevue, compared to the peninsula it was close enough for me. I still visited Seattle a few nights a week: board game nights, pick-up football games, playing tourist on occasion. I had a close-knit group of friends, one of which I was dating. At twenty years old, I felt like I had it all.
My grandmother passed away in September that year. I had just moved into Bellevue in August, but was visiting her in Bremerton a few times a week. I still remember one night, coming back on the ferry to Seattle. The sky was glowing green from all the city lights. I had my mp3 player on, and What Sarah Said came on next. That song still reminds me of both my grandmother and that ferry ride to this day. I think that might have been the last night I saw her too.
The next year, the city kicked me out. It was my own undoing no doubt about it, and I’m not going into details here. But I moved back home, and was ready to get back out as soon as I could. Three months later, I was back in the city. The big one this time. Seattle.
It was an old turn-of-the-century apartment I shared with a couple roommates. The space was cramped, but it was mine. Plus I was about five blocks from downtown. Admittedly these few years I was only at home to shower and sleep, constantly bouncing around the city. Last I checked, the building got torn down and replaced with some massive office space.
I lived there for three years. In that time, I truly discovered myself. I came to terms with my identity, my sexuality, my health, what I liked and disliked. I was in the best shape of my life, walking up and down the hills probably had a lot to do with that. My groups of friends rotated through the years: from one board game group to the next, that group of exchange students I met on their way to North Bend, the sports bar where I spent so many Sunday afternoons downing hot dogs with bizarre toppings. I jumped from job to job: cashiering, tour guide, furniture store sales, and too much online stuff to keep track of. I never got rich or even close to it, just enough to squeak by on what I had. It was enough for me.
I met my current partner at the end of 2013. Our first "date" was me showing her around Seattle, since she lived an hour away and had never really been in the city. I don’t think either one of us envisioned a full-fledged relationship, but after showing her around the city I called home, and a few other trips around the area, we were together and have been ever since. I guess you could say Seattle caused my relationship too.
Remember that Mariners game I went to on my seventh birthday? Well, one day my partner and some of my family (including my 3 year old cousin) got to go to a Mariners game at Safeco in 2015. A nice Wednesday day game. Pretty memorable for being a nice family outing, and really memorable for it being Iwakuma's no-hitter. It was purely dumb luck that it was that game we went to. I should remind them about that next time I visit.
Fate and circumstance took me away from the city again. I moved in with my partner outside of town, then we moved down to Vancouver, and we may soon be moving again.
Unfortunately, not back to Seattle.
I still miss the ferry rides to visit my family, the chaos of downtown, and the relatively laid back atmospheres of Fremont and Ballard. I miss meandering through the UW campus, or grabbing lunch at Pike Place, Tat’s, or Pagliacci’s. I miss the walk around Discovery Park, and going to Lincoln Park in Fauntleroy after it’s officially closed, watching the last ferry head out towards my home town at two in the morning. I miss the eerily quiet early weekend mornings in downtown, when the night owls have fallen asleep, and the morning people haven’t quite woken up yet. I miss playing flag football at Roosevelt High on Saturday mornings, though my shoulders and knees definitely don’t. I miss taking the bus to North Bend to get away from it all when the city got too overwhelming. I hope the bakery there is still as good as I remember it being.
I still visit here and there, work not included. I try to make it to Folklife every year, but obviously that didn’t happen this year, and who knows about next year.
Even though I don’t live there anymore, Seattle will always be the city that built me, for better or worse. And I’m okay with that. Maybe I'm happy about that. I just hope I’ll be back again soon.
submitted by brakos to SeattleWA [link] [comments]


2020.08.20 03:00 portlane Lawrence Blus (Dec. 23, 1933 - July 2, 2020)

Lawrence J. Blus
Dec. 23, 1933 - July 2, 2020
Lawrence "Larry" John Blus of Portland passed away Thursday, July 2, 2020 in Portland. He was 86. Larry was born Dec. 23, 1933 in Tilden, Ill., to Frank Blus and Anna Lentkis Blus, Larry was one of eight children: Anne (Pete) Novack; Mary (Louis) Luketich; Frank, Jr. (Willa) Blus; Joe (Jane) Blus; Bill (Dorothy) Blus; Ray (Betty) Blus; Barbara Jean (Mervil) Franklin. Larry was preceded in death by his parents; and all siblings and their spouses except for his sister, Barbara Jean Franklin of Fairview Heights, Ill. Nieces and nephews (deceased): Gloria Jean Novack, Jamie Luketich Jr., Andrew Blus, and Lucille Luketich. Surviving nieces and nephews: Cindy (Steve) Meyer, Debi Jo (Roger) Urbani, Joyce (Kenny) Clare, Jill (Jim) Webb, Joni Blus, Paul (Ann) Luketich, Louie Luketich, Dr. James (Christine) Luketich, Dennis (Julia)Franklin, Evelyn Franklin, and many great and great-great nieces and nephews survive Larry.
Larry is survived by his wife; three children; and three grandchildren. Larry married Donna Darlene (Weil) Blus, April 25, 1964 in North Platte, Neb. The couple celebrated their 50th anniversary in 2014 by renewing their vows. They were married 56 years.
Larry and Donna have three children: Denise (Kevin) Cossa Tigard, Ore.; Emily (Kenneth) Tantare Portland; and Daniel Blus Salem, Ore. Larry is survived by grandchildren: Sarah Tantare Seattle, Wash.; Julia Tantare Portland; and Caitlin Cossa Tigard, Ore.
Larry attended Tilden Illinois Elementary and graduated from Marissa Illinois Township High School, Class of 1951. He served in the U.S. Army from 1953-1955, earning the rank of corporal. He moved on to college, receiving a Bachelor of Science degree from Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, Ill., in 1959; followed by a Master's degree in 1963.
Larry joined the Army during the Korean War and used the GI bill to enroll at Southern Illinois University where he became the first person in the Blus family to get a college education. Immediately after he obtained his bachelor's degree, he studied and got his master's degree. He used these degrees in Zoology and Botany to study birds, working for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service as a leading biologist researching how DDE and DDT affected the eggshells of brown pelicans. He was published in countless books and papers and testified before Congress against the use of certain toxic pesticides that eventually contributed to restrictions on the use of DDT. He published nearly 100 papers in scientific journals and chapters in scientific books.
Larry began his professional work experience as a research biologist for the Nebraska Fish & Game Commission 1963-1966. He worked as a wildlife research biologist 31 years for U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service from 1966-1997.
Larry was part of a large number of civic and religious organizations. Toastmasters 1975-1977; Branch President Thrivent Financial 1988-1998; Western Hills Kiwanis 1998-2004; Board of Directors OSU Music Association 1998-2004; Benton County Democratic Party, Precinct Committee Vice Chair 1999-2001; Holy Trinity Lutheran Church, Laurel, MD 1966-1977; Grace Lutheran Church, Corvallis, Ore., 1977-2004; St. Matthew Lutheran Church, Portland 2004-2020.
He worked as a volunteer for Meals on Wheels, Corvallis 1998-2004; Raleigh Hills K-8 School, Portland 2005-2010; Alberta Rider Elementary School, Tigard, Ore., 2011-2012; Habitat for Humanity; and OSU Crossroads 1984-2004.
He was an avid philanthropist contributing to many organizations. His favorite hobbies were spending time with family, watching birds, reading, playing games, singing, attending church, listening to his wife sing in the church choir, watching his children and grandchildren play sports and perform. Larry never let a person pass without reaching out for a handshake or hand hold. He was welcomed into Heaven, with angels singing, "Well done."
A memorial service will be held at a date to be determined. His remains are interred at Oak Lawn Memorial Park, Corvallis, Ore. In lieu of flowers, please consider a gift of remembrance of Larry to the National Wildlife Federation, the Macular Degeneration Association, Sarasota, Fla., or St. Matthew Lutheran Church, Beaverton, Ore. Read the full obituary and sign the guestbook at: www.mchenryfuneralhome.com
Please sign the online guest book at www.oregonlive.com/obits
source: http://obits.oregonlive.com/obituaries/oregon/obituary.aspx?n=lawrence-j-blus&pid=196662597
submitted by portlane to deadpeoplepdx [link] [comments]


2020.08.19 21:00 portlane Lawrence Blus (Dec. 13, 1933 - July 2, 2020)

Lawrence J. Blus
Dec. 13, 1933 - July 2, 2020
Lawrence "Larry" John Blus of Portland passed away Thursday, July 2, 2020 in Portland. He was 86. Larry was born Dec. 23, 1933 in Tilden, Ill., to Frank Blus and Anna Lentkis Blus, Larry was one of eight children: Anne (Pete) Novack; Mary (Louis) Luketich; Frank, Jr. (Willa) Blus; Joe (Jane) Blus; Bill (Dorothy) Blus; Ray (Betty) Blus; Barbara Jean (Mervil) Franklin. Larry was preceded in death by his parents; and all siblings and their spouses except for his sister, Barbara Jean Franklin of Fairview Heights, Ill. Nieces and nephews (deceased): Gloria Jean Novack, Jamie Luketich Jr., Andrew Blus, and Lucille Luketich. Surviving nieces and nephews: Cindy (Steve) Meyer, Debi Jo (Roger) Urbani, Joyce (Kenny) Clare, Jill (Jim) Webb, Joni Blus, Paul (Ann) Luketich, Louie Luketich, Dr. James (Christine) Luketich, Dennis (Julia)Franklin, Evelyn Franklin, and many great and great-great nieces and nephews survive Larry.
Larry is survived by his wife; three children; and three grandchildren. Larry married Donna Darlene (Weil) Blus, April 25, 1964 in North Platte, Neb. The couple celebrated their 50th anniversary in 2014 by renewing their vows. They were married 56 years.
Larry and Donna have three children: Denise (Kevin) Cossa Tigard, Ore.; Emily (Kenneth) Tantare Portland; and Daniel Blus Salem, Ore. Larry is survived by grandchildren: Sarah Tantare Seattle, Wash.; Julia Tantare Portland; and Caitlin Cossa Tigard, Ore.
Larry attended Tilden Illinois Elementary and graduated from Marissa Illinois Township High School, Class of 1951. He served in the U.S. Army from 1953-1955, earning the rank of corporal. He moved on to college, receiving a Bachelor of Science degree from Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, Ill., in 1959; followed by a Master's degree in 1963.
Larry joined the Army during the Korean War and used the GI bill to enroll at Southern Illinois University where he became the first person in the Blus family to get a college education. Immediately after he obtained his bachelor's degree, he studied and got his master's degree. He used these degrees in Zoology and Botany to study birds, working for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service as a leading biologist researching how DDE and DDT affected the eggshells of brown pelicans. He was published in countless books and papers and testified before Congress against the use of certain toxic pesticides that eventually contributed to restrictions on the use of DDT. He published nearly 100 papers in scientific journals and chapters in scientific books.
Larry began his professional work experience as a research biologist for the Nebraska Fish & Game Commission 1963-1966. He worked as a wildlife research biologist 31 years for U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service from 1966-1997.
Larry was part of a large number of civic and religious organizations. Toastmasters 1975-1977; Branch President Thrivent Financial 1988-1998; Western Hills Kiwanis 1998-2004; Board of Directors OSU Music Association 1998-2004; Benton County Democratic Party, Precinct Committee Vice Chair 1999-2001; Holy Trinity Lutheran Church, Laurel, MD 1966-1977; Grace Lutheran Church, Corvallis, Ore., 1977-2004; St. Matthew Lutheran Church, Portland 2004-2020.
He worked as a volunteer for Meals on Wheels, Corvallis 1998-2004; Raleigh Hills K-8 School, Portland 2005-2010; Alberta Rider Elementary School, Tigard, Ore., 2011-2012; Habitat for Humanity; and OSU Crossroads 1984-2004.
He was an avid philanthropist contributing to many organizations. His favorite hobbies were spending time with family, watching birds, reading, playing games, singing, attending church, listening to his wife sing in the church choir, watching his children and grandchildren play sports and perform. Larry never let a person pass without reaching out for a handshake or hand hold. He was welcomed into Heaven, with angels singing, "Well done."
A memorial service will be held at a date to be determined. His remains are interred at Oak Lawn Memorial Park, Corvallis, Ore. In lieu of flowers, please consider a gift of remembrance of Larry to the National Wildlife Federation, the Macular Degeneration Association, Sarasota, Fla., or St. Matthew Lutheran Church, Beaverton, Ore. Read the full obituary and sign the guestbook at: www.mchenryfuneralhome.com
Please sign the online guest book at www.oregonlive.com/obits
source: http://obits.oregonlive.com/obituaries/oregon/obituary.aspx?n=lawrence-j-blus&pid=196662597
submitted by portlane to deadpeoplepdx [link] [comments]


2020.08.10 20:38 Buck_Joffrey Wealth Formula Episode 224: Multifamily Macroeconomics in the Twilight Zone

Catch the full episode: https://www.wealthformula.com/podcast/224-multifamily-macroeconomics-in-the-twilight-zone/
Buck: Welcome back to the show everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula Podcast, he's been on the show before. He's economist Ryan Davis. He actually joined us at one of our last Wealth Formula meetups. Of course, the last one we had was canceled but Ryan was at the one before that. He serves as a chief operating officer at Witten Advisors and provides fact-based research analysis and discussion to help clients like us formulate their apartment strategies and these insights and for investment decisions for multi-family development and buy/sell opportunities which as you can imagine we're all looking for some of this advice these days. Ryan has a PhD in economics from the University of Texas. Ryan, welcome back to Wealth Formula Podcast.
Ryan: Thank you. Glad to be back.
Buck: Yeah it's been like a pandemic ago when we last talked right? Listen, you know I want to kind of jump into the whole you know what the heck is going on, I mean the overall, if you would, you know kind of give me your overall assessment of the economy. I mean obviously we know these huge drops in GDP etc which were expected last quarter. How is this all affecting real estate asset prices especially you know apartments which is you know is our interest and something that you specialize in?
Ryan: Sure so yeah the great unknown is the pace of the recovery. So we had that big drop through April in terms of employment and then we got a bounce back in May and June and the hope was that it was going to be a V-shaped recovery. But then we saw virus cases ramp back up in the second half of June into the early part of July and the local economy started rolling back some of their openings and so with that, we've kind of stalled out recently. So we'll get the July numbers this Friday for overall payroll gains and that could I think the consensus is anywhere between one, one and a half million jobs it could be negative so who knows but it looks like the hope for a v-shaped recovery in the economy has kind of stalled out after the first two months of optimism. And so we think that going forward we won't see any the worst is behind us really and so we won't see you know the big losses that we experienced in March and early into April so kind of what we're calling for right now is for the national economy to continue to add jobs for the remainder of the year and then beginning next year a recovery should emerge and that would sustain demand for housing and ultimately apartments going forward. In the near term as far as multi-family goes we expect some pain through the end of this year and then into the early part of next year. In terms of pricing power, if we had to boil it down to one number it's rent growth so year over year effective rent growth we think that declines to eight percent rent cuts this year and into the early part of 2021. That varies considerably on a local market basis I think our worst-performing market is Metro New York City probably no surprise there but then also many of the other gateway markets such as Boston, LA, the Bay Area, etc. We expect rent declines to be lower than that eight percent across the board, however many of the inner west, Texas, southeastern market should outperform still see rent declines but not closer to five/six percent range at the depth and so we expect near-term pain but then as we get out into 2021 and afterward and the economy begins to add a lot of jobs we would expect rent growth to return to multi-family. And then what that means for pricing in terms of apartment assets for right now in the second quarter hardly any deals trade at hand so it's really tough to get a sense of where pricing is and with the deals that have traded though the cap rates have remained relatively stable which is a good sign. We've heard from some of our merchant builder clients where they had assets they had constructed and were going out to the market to sell in the early part of April they were saying 10 discounts in terms of the compared to pre corona levels but that has since come back in the last 45-60 days and maybe it's only one to two percent in terms of the haircut that they're seeing out there right now. And there's a just a ton of capital that wants to get back into multifamily at the same time there's hardly any distress out there right now so there's a lack of available to you know supply to buy and so everyone is just kind of in this standstill there's a big ass gap because buyers aren't willing to pay yesterday's prices for assets but sellers aren't willing to give any you know deep discounts right now and so it's kind of a standstill and we’ll see how all this plays out.
Buck: Yeah you know it's really interesting we're obviously you know through, you work with Western Wealth Capital, one of my partners and you know it's funny because we were kind of thinking well maybe there'll be some real buying opportunities but you know we've seen a little bit maybe just you know from buyers who are sellers who just are just wanting to get out while they're ahead maybe they made some money you know maybe they and at this point you know they're just thinking let's just cash out and maybe they're willing to take a little bit less but for the most part you know if you look across our own portfolio and it might be because it's largely again Texas and Arizona, etc that and maybe it's because it's mostly working-class B and you know high C class apartment but our portfolio you know the numbers are just as good as they've ever been in terms of you know occupancy in terms of even our we're still raising rents. And so when you look at that you're like well I mean how do you expect there to be any you know smoking deals out there if the sellers really aren't feeling any distress. So is there a difference you know when you look at something like a B and C class apartment scenario versus A right now or have you been able to break that down a little bit because I think the people I know who are in the A-class and new build are you know they're certainly feeling things a little bit more than we are.
Ryan: Yeah so what we've heard from some of our clients in terms of early on so may June in terms of rent collections class A's were actually from a nationwide perspective actually exceeded the class B and C product. Now we don't think that will continue going forward and the main reason is that new deliveries that are coming online they will compete with the existing top of the market product and so we think that it will be short-lived in terms of the top of the market outperformance and another part is due to just the nature of this downturn where low-wage sectors were hit extremely hard in April, got some bounce back in May and June but the leisure and hospitality sectors lower-paying positions those have been the most impacted so far. But going forward we don't think that this downturn would be any different than prior recessions in terms of the class A leading the way down in terms of jobs and occupancy and also rent growth or rent cuts in the near term. So class A’s will lead the market down but then as we get out into the later part of next year and into early 2022 then class A's would outperform the broader market. So yeah we think through the end of this year until early next that B's and C's will hold up relatively better but that's mainly a function of just the competition that it takes to get these new projects they will get leased up it's just a matter of the market-clearing price and so those have to compete those could be mostly with the top end of the spectrum and so we see big rent declines and concessions in the class A space going forward.
Buck: You know there's this thesis that's going around in the multi-family space and you know I've been sort of you know looking at it this way too for a while though I'm starting to you know feel like it's maybe not gonna happen is this idea that there's going to be a potentially before we really rebound and start heading up again that there’ll potentially be a you know big tsunami of defaults and things like that. Right now at least what I'm you know seeing and hearing about in terms of the lending markets and in terms of these properties, there really isn't much indication of that right now is there I mean what do you think?
Ryan: No at least not in the short term I mean again there's it goes back to my earlier comment there's been no distress really and so that is due mainly to the huge stimulus packages that have been passed those from a fiscal standpoint and a monetary standpoint which is it's crazy to think that GDP declined at an annualized rate by 32 however incomes soared and so that's all due to the stimulus that we saw and so that's helped prop up renters incomes and allow them to pay rent. Now going forward I think some of these the number of defaults I don't think there will be a tsunami, at least that's how we view it right now, ask me again in a week and it could change, but I think that the defaults will be very market specific and so those geographies that have been hit harder we'll see a larger number but many of the Texas markets, Phoenix, Denver, southeast high growth markets where you've got this short-term tailwind in terms of folks at the margin more and the trends that have been in place for years of folks moving from gateway markets into these inner markets will be kind of you know given a stairway shot really in the near term and so that would help to prop up multi-family fundamentals and so yeah if you're expecting a tsunami of defaults in any of those markets that I've mentioned again it kind of gets a little bit granular in terms of you know potentially Orlando might have some problems just with the amount of supply and then the you know low-wage in tourism industries being impacted more dramatically and that would lead to some weakness in Orlando but out outside of that maybe Houston you could argue you know somewhat but outside of those two and those those areas of the inner west Texas, southeast Florida should be but hold up you know relatively well and I would think that the main stress points will be out you know on the coast in California potentially portland we do think seattle holds up relatively well and then northeast in terms of you know New York and Boston as well so I think it's very locally market driven.
Buck: Yeah it's interesting you know we did we were a little worried about Houston too but our you know Houston portfolio is actually doing awesome it's not having any problems at all which is which was you know again, knock on wood that’s what it's been so far. Let me ask you another question you mentioned the pent-up demand of you know money on the sidelines waiting to get back in and you know and in many situations, they have to get back in right they're mandated to deploy capital and that sort of thing do you the one thought that I've had through this is you know multi-family and well multi-family in general has held up so well during this period of time does that potentially create a situation where you know the big money that's coming in starts looking at this even harder as potentially a little bit of a hedge or a little bit of safe haven. What what do you guys think is going to be the effect of that you know the relatively stable performance and then ultimately you know having all of this money on the sidelines,? Do you see paradoxical even further compression of cap rates over the next couple years? What's your thought on that?
Ryan: Yeah and so kind of pre-corona our forecast was for cap rates to continue to decline and you know taking a step back it was mainly driven by global factors with the aging populations across the globe that have built wealth up and all that investment needed to be placed somewhere. And so those trends were driving returns lower for longer and so those are the demographic that have not been affected by the pandemic. And so just from a global standpoint, we're expecting returns across all assets whether stocks bonds you know all classes of real estate whether it's multi or industrial retail office, etc those returns would continue to head lower. Now we've had the pandemic and we've seen multi-family and industrial hold up exceedingly well and who knows what to make of retail office and lodging just lots of pain and in those sectors and so if you need to be allocated to real estate then multifamily and industrial or where you want to be at least in the short term and especially if you're looking for consistency of returns and you know risk-adjusted on a risk-adjusted basis you know multi-industrial or have outperformed other asset classes and so really to get into the lodging office retail space probably more opportunistic mindset in terms of those assets may need to be repositioned etc and so I think a lot of that money that's out there is not looking to get there's a lot that's looking for that type of asset turnaround story but there's also a lot of money out there that needs the stability. And so that should continue to compress cap rates or put a really put a cap on that cap rates and so it would be no surprise if cap rates on an aggregate basis hold steady and maybe even decline despite a deterioration in short-term fundamentals and part of that is due to the long-term belief in apartments going forward and so yes there's a short-term dislocation where we expect some move-outs that you know this year actually there are a lot of move-outs that we expect and so there's going to be a lot of doubling up folks moving back in with their families but then there's going to be pent up demand as we as that recovery takes hold next year and that will be released and so we see leasing to be through the roof next year and then out into 2022. Then at the same time as that demand story improves in the short term we see starts decelerating dramatically so we've we're going from a 400,000 unit run rate to about 200,000 units by the early part of next year. And so new production is going to get cut in half now that we don't get any benefit of that immediately so we have to wait till later part of 2022 and 2023 before we see that slowdown and production really lift fundamentals and so I think everyone is seeing that yes there's some short-term disruption in the multi-family market right now, but the long-term drivers are there and if you have the capital to wait out this very painful period in the short term then there will be major benefits after that we should see after next year.
Buck: Now one of the things you said I think earlier is that the worst is behind us do you believe that's the case in terms of rent growth and you know rent cuts and that sort of thing right now?
Ryan: I think the worst is behind us in terms of the economy. I think that going forward we should continue to produce job gains on a monthly basis, though this next report could see some layoffs we'll see the consensus is one million one and a half. In terms of multi-family we do not think the worst is behind us we think that fundamentals will continue to deteriorate into the early part of next year we think that you know kind of right now in terms of year over year rent growth in the early part of this year let's call it three, three and a half percent we've since gone down to zero percent in the second quarter. So on a quarterly basis we've seen some dramatic rent cuts, again this is on a national basis and then as we move forward we see occupancy dropping by about three percentage points into the early part of next year, rent declines of about eight percent through the remainder of this year into the first quarter of next year and so no we do think that there will be some deterioration and fundamentals going forward. On the flip side of that might present some opportunities and so any assets that were purchased specially in your space in terms of if they were bought at the top of the market at the end of last year in the early part of this year and now that value-add story isn't there where you might not be able to get the rent bumps that you were expecting so some of those assets will have to be recapitalized and so that might present some opportunity as the year progresses but again like you said we haven't seen that materialized so far.
Buck: Yeah that's the tricky part right I mean it's sort of like I think when you're on the buy side here you're saying well I mean these prices that we're seeing right now you know with prolonged you know low-interest rates which we can pretty much guarantee at this point for a period of time and then the pent-up demand. It's sort of like okay well I mean this actually might be one of the better times to buy if you consider what could potentially happen in the next you know 18 to 24 months in terms of you know explosive growth. When you look at those indicators that you're you know that you're talking about that may lead to some of the more explosive growth metrics what markets come to mind the most for you?
Buck: Now one of the things you said I think earlier is that the worst is behind us do you believe that's the case in terms of rent growth and you know rent cuts and that sort of thing right now?
Ryan: Yeah so our general geographic areas that we like we like the southeast, parts of Florida, Texas and the inner west. We really like Atlanta, we like South Florida though there's a little more pain in the short term some of our clients are saying it kind of in terms of you know rent collections you know northeast but also yeah LA but then South Florida is outperforming those two areas but still lagging some of these other markets. So we like the Texas markets long term the interwebs you have Phoenix, Denver, Salt Lake as well. We like Seattle that's an outlier on the west coast but then the other markets whereas in the Bay Area we expect those you know rent growth numbers to average four, four and a half percent which stack up really well across the nation but for those markets that's a recession pretty much and so compared to what's normal and the cap rates you have to pay the rent growth numbers there kind of you know lackluster. So the midwest the markets they won't be hit as hard but still they don't get that explosive growth going forward and so we really like the inner West Texas, southeast of Florida markets and you know part of that has been driven being driven by the migration flows. So domestic migration numbers have really helped out all of these markets we've seen outflows from the northeast boston new york the bay area Southern California we've seen migration outflows from those markets into the you know inner west you know Las Vegas the inland Phoenix, Denver you know people moving from the coast into those markets and then you know also parts of texas as well but then in terms of the northeast the flows that are coming in to the Nashvilles the Charlottes, Raleighs, Atlanta, Florida markets we and then also Texas as well and so those trends have been accelerated at least in the short term, but it's important to remember that those have been going on for a decade at least even more and then other markets and so it's not anything new but at the margin that will support many of these other markets.
Buck: Yeah on the west coast I mean there's that flight to Arizona as well right from California. One of the things that you know is worth talking about is what effect this has had you know the pandemic and the recession on the lending market, with Fannie and Freddie and you know how that might be playing into any of the growth or lack of growth.
Ryan: Yeah I think on the financing side you know debt for stabilized assets it's there and it's cheap you may have to you know have higher reserves than you've had typically but for the most part it's there and so that's part of the appeal of buying assets right now with these record low interest rates. So I think for stabilized assets yeah it's there for new construction it is dried up considerably and this is a change in the last 30 to 60 days and so the fed does a survey each quarter of banks and their tightening of multi-family construction lending standards and that the latest report shows 70 percent of banks tighten their multi-family construction loans last quarter which we haven't seen those levels since 2008/2009. And so I think part of it's the lenders are trying to make sense of what they have in terms of all these other asset types in terms of real estate or retail, lodging, office loans, they're trying to you know spend a lot of time working those out and so then you add on the uncertainty in terms of the economic recovery etc, they've pretty much put a halt on new construction loans. And so that's been a big change here in the last two months call it. Then on the equity side I think returns have been increased but still available and interested but you know a lot of you know equity and especially focusing in on the new starts pipeline if all the deals that have been started are continuing and it's kind of a mixed bag from our clients in terms of are you seeing delays or actually some other clients that reported these they were able to speed up the timing in terms of getting able to get trucks into sites very easily and then also the construction workers that were on you know working on hotels motels those have come into the apartment sector and so that's provided more manpower in terms of getting these deals done. And so those that were under construction are continuing to proceed, those that were capitalized I think that but haven't begun those have been they haven't pulled out completely they just said let's press pause to see let's say can we get any break in construction costs over the next several months and so the equity and banks they're still willing to do it move forward on those deals that have been capitalized but are you know slow playing it. And then you get to the others where there's land sites and they hadn't been entitled and haven't been capitalized those deals we think have been shelved for right now and so it kind of where some opportunity could be is on the land side of you know potentially purchasing some land sites that might be teed up for development as we get further along in this recovery.
Buck: Again one of the things that you're saying though in terms of construction loans not being there again it helps us for those of us who have apartment portfolios already that are already there that that again goes to the issue of a simple supply and demand issue which we can benefit from if there's not a whole lot of new builds. You know this is a major driving variable in in apartment buildings nationally can you give us a little bit of the idea of you know just not being able to keep up with you know population growth in various parts of the country, can you give us a little bit of you know sort of a thousand-foot view on the perspective on how big of an issue that actually is?
Ryan: I don't know if it's that big of an issue you know on on the whole and I think that you know some of these higher growth markets in terms of where we've you know call it the Atlantas and North Carolina markets, Central North Florida, Texas, the inner west regions where we've seen large population growth statistics you know high growth markets but they're also they also tend to be the highest in terms of supply for housing and so it's more easy to build in those markets especially you know out as you get away from the know central cities etc and so where we've seen the the biggest barriers to supply are out on the coast and so we've seen you know job growth be pretty good in those markets but the supply hasn't kept up at all and so that's why you're seeing you know these big you know rent affordability you know problems in the coastal markets and so we think that supply not keeping up with the population dynamics is more of a coastal problem but then you know as you get into the markets that are more accepting of new development then you know we've seen housing supply increase at a rapid clip in many of these other markets I think you know Austin you know even through the June of this year permit activity for multi-family continued to set it reached big big levels and so I think year to date in Austin it's already pulled permits on almost 10,000 units already which is you know huge numbers. And so I do think that while these population growth numbers and some of these markets are you know off the charts especially compared to you know some of the coastal markets, that supply has been able to keep up there and so yeah you see pockets of where you know rent growth you know bumps up to you know five, six percent levels, it's especially that was the case in Phoenix and Las Vegas over the past two to three years where those markets were leading in terms of rent increases but they tend to you know be markets that you know will accept more new supply and so that will tend to even out over the long term.
Buck: How's Vegas doing out of curiosity because that one was just crushing it. It seemed it seemed a little dangerous you know it seemed like one of those markets where it's like wow is it real or is it one of those things that's just gonna go back to Vegas.
Ryan: Yeah exactly and yeah kind of thinking that you know before kind of goes back to your comment earlier about people moving from the coast to getting in their car and driving to the riverside and then Las Vegas and Phoenix and so it was benefiting from a real out-migration from expensive coastal California. That said that just the nature of this pandemic crushing leisure and hospitality and the conference circuit that the job losses in Las Vegas I think you know through April into May led the nation. We've seen some a bit of a bounce back there but really the question is you know how fast does the the conference you know a circuit come back, how fast are people willing to travel to casinos, I know they have already, but I think that pre-corona the growth was real and yeah absolutely now it's a little bit different you know market in terms of the cost and you don't want to go in there and if you're a developer you don't you know want to build a high-rise there and so your strategy is a little bit different but so far it's held up relatively well, all things considered, but still a lot of weakness that is materializing in Vegas.
Buck: Interesting stuff. Well listen I don't want to keep you all day long, Ryan, but it's been great talking to you. Where can we learn more about your work?
Ryan: Sure. Probably the easiest is wittenadvisors.com you can go there, all our contact information is there, feel free to reach out with a phone call or send me an email anytime and I'll be happy to give you more details on the services that we provide and how we add value to many clients that are in either owner, operators, developers, equity or lender clients.
Buck: Fantastic thanks again and we'd love to have you again you know in a few months to reassess where we are at.
Ryan: All right. Sounds good. Looking forward to it.
Buck: We'll be right back
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2020.08.03 02:41 indonesian_activist ⛼🌕🐺👻🧛🧟🧟‍♀ Everybody wants to rule the world, Zombie Markets Part VIII 🦇🐻

Previous Posts
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/hx46k9/geopolitik_trumps_earnings_zombie_markets_part_vii/
Last week Positions
SPY SELL 325C 7/31
SPY BUY 330C 7/31
Well, I think most of us managed to got out before 1 PM when it was already down to 0.02, Insane move by AAPL, never seen anything like it in decades.
https://ibb.co/GTdSXgR
Sharing the image to highlight I didn't just threw darts on a map when I chose last week strike. You could've exited anytime on Friday for a profit except the last 15 mins of trading. AAPL stock split enthusiasm and tiktok buyout rumors by MSFT(edit : now pause then back on again) drove it past 325 eclipsing the stimulus paycheck pause
Looking into next week, again for the SPY we need to think in terms of Geopolitik Say AMZN struck a deal in South Asia and MENA regions, they're set to dominate the ecommerce market there, oh just one problem. all the goods from vietnam / US can't get there because the South China Sea is being blockaded. Or GOOG invents an improvement to instant results, ie Mind Results, results pop up on your android even before you type anything, and it works on 50 different languages. Whoops won't matter if they are banned in Asia due to US loosing allies over there. Tiktok case is the reverse example of this.
Who makes the most money ultimately comes down to who have MORE GUNS(and wins wars), we will see how this play out over the next few months along with the rona pandemic. It's been this way for thousands of years ever since Roman times. This view is also echoed by the world's biggest Hedge Funds.
"Ray Dalio's, chairman of Bridgewater capital(160B AUM) 2nd article on Geopolitics"
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycle-united-states-dollar-part-2-ray-dalio/
Governance between countries is very different from governance within countries. That is because within countries there are laws and standards of behavior that govern, whereas between countries raw power matters most, and laws, rules, and even mutually agreed treaties and organizations for arbitration such as the League of Nations, the United Nations, and the World Trade Organization don't matter much. Operating internationally is like operating in a jungle in which there is survival of the fittest and most anything goes. That is what makes having a strong military so important.
Where the US Is in Its Big Cycle The stats seem to suggest that the US is roughly 75% through that cycle, +/- 10%. Is it reversible?
"USA Net International investment position "
https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C5612AQERAW2vfgiGAA/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/0?e=1602115200&v=beta&t=96260dzAt3-N2pSRGOyCAdkO0I1R6WVpsXNmI04ql5A
"EST Share of Global GDP PPP Adj"
https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C5612AQHx-MIh208rUA/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/0?e=1602115200&v=beta&t=kP-tyBY78SkyYmmtbCklQ4YT1PDsOmwGaYWV541bDdQ
Recall how after WW2 when everyone else was in shambles, US was gaining massively by exporting and lending, if America doesn't get it act together in facing rona, we will likely see reverse WW2 effect.
Exposure of top SPY companies revenue to China
AAPL
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-grew-in-china-with-record-ipad-and-services-revenue.html
9.33/59.7 Bn = 15.6%
It looks like it's growing in China, but it does so by offering steep discount on BABA and JD online events.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/apple-cuts-iphone-prices-in-china-to-keep-post-lockdown-momentum-going.html#:~:text=The%20iPhone%2011%20Pro%20starts,yuan%2C%20down%20from%203%2C299%20yuan.
The pct regional revenue from China have actually decreased since 2019
YoY AAPL China's Revenue Change
https://i1.wp.com/sixcolors.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/financials-2020-7-4-5.png?ssl=1
AAPL Regional Revenue 4Q Avg
https://i1.wp.com/sixcolors.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/financials-2020-7-4-3.png?ssl=1
Other S&P500 companies with significant China revenue exposure includes :
Ticker Rev Pct from China Revenue From China
INTC 23.6% 15Bn
QCOM 65.4% 14.5Bn
BA 12.8% 12Bn
MU 51.1% 10Bn
AVGO 53.7% 9.5Bn
CSCO 15.9% 7.6Bn
TXN 44.1% 6.6Bn
Note the above shows that China is dependent on US planes and high tech electronics components like microprocessors and specialized boards, something that they are trying to rectify fast.
"Huawei overtaking Samsung worldwide"
https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screen-Shot-2020-07-31-at-10.58.08-AM.png
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/huawei-overtakes-samsung-to-be-no-1-smartphone-maker-thanks-to-china.html
"Homegrown CPUs"
https://technode.com/2020/02/20/silicon-chinas-progress-on-homegrown-cpus/
"COMAC Passenger jets"
https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2020/07/17/comac-boeing-airbus-arj21-regional-jets-china-buys.html
"ARM vs ARM China JV Dispute"
ARM designs the CPUs used by smartphones both iPhones and Android.
https://www.zdnet.com/article/arms-fired-china-jv-head-refuses-to-leave-company-reps-banned-from-company-premises/
Yes, ARM China basically just revolted and declared independence from ARM UK lol, I guess de facto, now they have their own CPU.
SPY P/E historical
Median PE : 14.83 Current PE 7/31 : 28.12
The only period where it has been higher was Nov 2008-Nov 2009 when a lot of companies were reporting losses and reduced earnings.

But Printer Go Brrr you say ? It's not like the 70s or 80s anymore, there are alternatives to foreign reserves now like EUR and RMB, especially with China reducing dollar use on cross border trades with currency swap agreements.
Interactive Map: The Spread of Central Bank Currency Swaps (China)
https://www.cfr.org/article/central-bank-currency-swaps-tracker#chapter-title-0-5
USD share of world's central bank foreign reserve
https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C5612AQHzbe3-HcXWNw/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488/0?e=1602115200&v=beta&t=cBpEOd_M36fruplE4UZR3Os8VUZkVoViR26jq7a7WuE
Yeah, as the world reserve currency JPOW still needs to maintain a sense of stabiity, as in not drop >5% in a single month. Otherwise all those overseas dollars will come flooding back and bam we'll have hyperinflation. So no he won't push the printer much more, for the next few weeks at least.
“The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus,”
“It’s just such an important sentence, we decided it needed to be in our post-meeting statement,”
What he said in the FOMC last wednesday was actually very bearish, he admitted the need to keep interest rate at zero and maintain current pace of bond buying just to keep markets from crashing.
July recap for futures
SP500 ES O: 3085 C:3269 , :+5.9%
USD DX O: 97.38 C:93.42, : -4.06%
Last week Recap
SP500 ES O:3210 H:3273 L:3192 C:3269 , :+1.8%
USD DX O:94.35 H:94.38 L:92.51 C:93.42, :-0.98%
After July, It's unlikely that FED will allow USD to fall >3% in August
FED Market operation schedule for next week
Date Time Securities Size
8/4/2020 10:10 - 10:30 a.m. TIPS 7.5 to 30 2/5/2028 - 8/4/2050 $1.225 billion
8/5/2020 10:10 -10:30 a.m. Treasury Coupons 4.5 to 7 2/6/2025 - 8/5/2027 $6.025 billion
8/6/2020 10:10 - 10:30 a.m. Treasury Coupons 20 to 30 8/7/2040 - 8/6/2050 $1.750 billion
Last week market operations
Date Time Securities Size
7/28/2020 10:10 -10:30 a.m. Treasury Coupons 0* to 2.25 7/29/2020 - 10/28/2022 $12.825 billion
7/30/2020 10:10 -10:30 a.m. Treasury Coupons 20 to 30 7/31/2040 - 7/30/2050 $1.750 billion
7/31/2020 10:10 -10:30 a.m. Treasury Coupons 2.25 to 4.5 11/1/2022 - 1/31/2025 $8.825 billion

21 Bn Last week vs 9 Bn this coming week,
Based on that I'm assuming USD inflates <1% next week And we've seen on some days with no company news and earnings that
The SPY vs DXY is inversely correlated
Here is an extreme example from June 14th when FED announced individual corporate bond buying
https://ibb.co/V23QMzQ
SP500 earnings for next week, no mega market caps set to announce
https://www.finscreener.com/earnings/earnings-calendasp500?tframe=NW
Jobless Claim
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/continuing-jobless-claims#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Continuing,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models.
We see a total of 17 million continuing jobless claims, with the CARES act expired on 7/31, no more 600 dollars a week to spend on necessities/iphones or for YOLO in RH. That just reduced about 10.2 Bn USD consumer purchases from circulating in the economy. These 17 mil people may be displaced structurally as in those jobs are not coming back even if the pandemic ends. Previous record was about 7 mil in 2009
GDP Growth rate
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual
Annualized was -32.9% but the actual growth rate for Q2 was -9.5%, doesn't sound as bad, in line with Euro economies but still bad.
Doing stupid simple math to illustrate a concept :
(SPY before Rona) x GDP Change x USD value change
339 x 0.905 x (1 + (99.82-93.42)) = 326.42
It doesn't actually work like this, models are complex, just an example to illustrate a concept of relative value Markets are forward looking so if you're planning to do something like the above you should forecast Q3 GDP growth.

Sovereign Credit Rating
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-31/united-states-outlook-revised-to-negative-from-stable-by-fitch
As a nation that can just basically print money, getting a negative outlook is a big deal, if the US were to lose its AAA credit rating expect more expensive debt issuance and fiscal problems down the road.

TL,DR: In Summary

China Clash + Rona Pandemic + Fed maintain current pace + No new stimulus deal until 8/7**
With those factors SPY will finish below 327 next week. For entry confirmation assuming no news of new stimulus deal reached I'll wait until it dips below 325 on Monday after lunch then If it does get in
Vertical calls credit spreads :

SPY SELL 327C 8/7

SPY BUY 332C 8/7 (Optional)

Note: When writing calls this close to the money, you should have enough capital to handle early assignments, if you don't then move the strike a few points back to your comfort level
We might need to exit before 8/7 depending on the state of stimulus negotiations
Alternatively If you think there will be a surprise stimulus deal of more than 2 Trillion next week, then
SPY SELL 331C 8/7
SPY BUY 336C 8/7

You may ask what is the opposite scenario that will propel the SPY to 400 this year ?
A military engagement in the South China Seas that is won swiftly and decisively by the US.
(As likely as Nancy Pelosi becoming Trump's 4th wife)


Obilgatory This is not an investment advice, bla bla bla..... , written by the autisticly retarded gambler
APPENDIX
Main Stimulus proposals

CARES (from March) Heroes (Democratic) HEALS (Republican)
Total cost of stimulus package $2.2 trillion $3 trillion $1 trillion
Enhanced unemployment benefit $600 per week in addition to state benefits. Same as CARES. Initially $200 per week. Then up to $500 per week to match 70% of lost wages when added to state benefits.
How long enhanced unemployment lasts Expires July 31. January 2021 for most workers, through March 2021 for gig workers, independent contractors, part-time workers and self-employed. $200 per week bonus through September. Then 70% matching of lost wages. Extends expiration of federal benefits until Dec. 31.
Paycheck Protection Program Allocated $659 billion total in forgivable loans for small businesses, who must use 75% on payroll to be eligible for forgiveness. $130 billion remains, but expires Aug. 8. Expands eligibility, eliminates 75% payroll requirement and extends application period to Dec. 31. Injects another $190 billion into the PPP fund, expands eligibility and allows businesses to request a second loan. Eliminates 75% payroll requirement and expands approved uses of funds for loan forgiveness.
Eviction protections and moratorium Bans late fees until July 25 and evictions until Aug. 24 on properties backed by federal mortgage programs (Fannie Mae, etc.) or that receive federal funds (HUD, etc.) Expands to cover nearly all rental properties in the US, extends eviction moratorium an additional 12 months, allocates $200 billion for housing programs and another $100 billion for rental assistance. Does not address.

How much can you get currently (HEALS Act)?
Desc Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Filed 2019 taxes? YES YES NO NO
Filing Status Single Head of Household Married Married
2018/2019 Tax AGI 80k 140k 130k 130k
Dependents under 17 0 1 2 2
Dependents over 17 0 0 0 2
Amount 950 1325 3400 4400

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